NASDAQ、最高値更新！その背景は？

AI rally lifts Nasdaq to a record, AMD tops $1 trillion in market cap

The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.26% in New York trading on September 21, setting a record high for the first time in about four months. AMD's stock surged 9.95%, pushing its market capitalization above $1 trillion for the first time. Intel gained more than 12%, and Meta rose more than 11% after an AI-related app of its topped the App Store charts. The Nasdaq closed at 27,122, the S&P 500 also hit a record, up 0.44%, and the dollar traded in the 157.30 yen range.

Falling oil prices and yields underpinned the rally

Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump referenced the possibility of dialogue with Iran, with Brent crude down 3.4% and WTI down 4.5%. That pulled the US 10-year Treasury yield down to as low as 4.943% intraday, which supported growth stocks. The host noted that Intel, which traded below $20 last year, has risen roughly sixfold to $121. Another chipmaker whose foundry business has struggled, by contrast, has fallen below $100 to around $92.

Tracing Nasdaq's history back to the dial-up era

The host recalled the 1995 launch of Windows 95 and the spread of the internet, remembering dialing into late-night discounted phone lines after 11 p.m. at 10 yen per five minutes. The Nasdaq, around 1000 in 1996, surged to 3000 by November 1999, 4000 by year-end, and 5000 by March 2000, continuing to climb even as the Fed raised its policy rate from just under 5% into the 6% range. It then crashed, falling to 1114 by October 2002. Over that period Amazon fell more than 90%, from $100 to $5-6, and Apple fell 81.8%. Cisco, the era's bellwether stock, took 25 years to finally surpass its dot-com-era high. In Japan, Sony and Hikari Tsushin shares were also talked about at the time.

Where is today's AI in the "hype cycle"?

Mapping IT and AI onto the five stages of the "hype cycle" - the technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment, and plateau of productivity - the host noted that IT peaked around 1998-2000, while the AI boom that began in late 2022 is still in the "peak of inflated expectations," with the actual peak still unknown. The host also mentioned that Warren Buffett only bought Apple stock in the 2010s, and that Costco was first bought individually by his partner Charlie Munger before Berkshire Hathaway invested.

Behind the surge in high school baseball's "combined teams"

Citing a Nikkei article, the host explained that the falling birthrate is making it harder for individual schools to field their own teams, and that 142 "combined teams" nationwide took part in this summer's regional tournaments, 12.9 times the 2012 figure. In Ibaraki Prefecture, an "Ibaraki combined" team made up of students from seven schools competed. The official number of high school baseball players peaked at 170,000 in 2014 and has fallen to 124,000 in 2026, with 13.4% of schools having single-digit team membership as of 2023. By grade, there were 43,300 first-years, 41,200 second-years, and just over 40,000 third-years, averaging 33 players per school. Annual births, around 1.08 million 18 years ago, have fallen to 660,000-670,000 now, suggesting team sizes could shrink further. Basketball is the most popular high school sports club at 16.2% of athletes, with baseball ranking fourth; volleyball, boosted by the popularity of "Haikyu!!", grew from 35,000 members in 2013 to more than 50,000. The episode closes with a tangent on other "combined" or split origins: Manchester United's founding, PSG, Yokohama F. Marinos, the AC Milan-Inter Milan split, and Adidas and Puma's origins in the split between the Dassler brothers.