【ニュース小話 #235】ロシアによる「グレーゾーン攻撃」。実態は戦争状態に近い

Spain's Gentrification Crisis — An 87-Year-Old Evicted After 70 Years

A housing protest estimated by organizers at 500,000 people filled a central Madrid square after footage of a dramatic eviction went viral internationally. The woman at the center of it had lived in her rented Madrid apartment since 1956 — nearly 70 years. She was pulled from her wheelchair, placed on a stretcher, and removed from her home. The surge in demand for short-term tourist apartments has sent rents soaring, and the displacement of long-term residents has become routine.

The problem is not limited to Europe. Tokyo's average resale condominium price in August stood at ¥112.74 million — down 0.2% from the prior month, the first decline in 28 months — but the figure 28 months ago, in April 2024, was ¥63.76 million. In other words, prices roughly doubled in two and a half years before this marginal pullback.

Commentator Fukai (深井氏) framed the structural tension: urban competitiveness grows with population density, but when housing costs rise faster than wages, inequality widens. He noted that Tokyo rents remain roughly one-sixth of New York levels and are still cheap by global standards, while also pointing to the difficulty of crafting policy to curb speculative purchases and the risk of a repeat of the post-bubble collapse.

Russia's Gray-Zone Attacks — Nuclear Threats Lose Credibility as Hybrid War Escalates

The Financial Times reported that Russia sent a letter to NATO warning it would deploy its full arsenal — including nuclear weapons — if the exclave of Kaliningrad were isolated. Kaliningrad is a piece of Russian territory wedged between Poland and Lithuania. It became Soviet territory under the 1945 Potsdam Agreement, then found itself cut off from the Russian mainland when Lithuania and the other Baltic states regained independence in 1991. The enclave currently hosts Iskander missile systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Beyond nuclear signaling, cyberattacks, disinformation, and arson have been documented against NATO member states. Reports indicate that Russia has paid Ukrainians to carry out arson attacks in order to stoke suspicion toward Ukraine's Western supporters — a level of covert action that Fukai described as "close to outright black" rather than a genuine gray zone. On the 15th, an unidentified drone entered Lithuanian airspace, scrambling Italian NATO fighter jets. Polish Prime Minister Tusk stated that Russia is testing the limits of the West's tolerance.

Despite repeated nuclear threats — including in response to Ukraine's Kursk operation — Russia has not used nuclear weapons, and Fukai argued that this has had a paradoxical effect: because the nuclear option has been shown not to be exercised, conventional warfare and hybrid operations will only keep escalating. He highlighted Sweden's recent drills rehearsing wartime burial procedures — body bags, logistics transport, and clergy-attended interment — as evidence that Europe is actively preparing for full-scale armed conflict.

Middle East: Yemeni Forces Retake Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

On the 5th, Yemen's government forces announced a major offensive against the Houthi rebels and the recapture of key positions around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the chokepoint connecting the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. Almost simultaneously, an emergency meeting was held in Riyadh under the Mecca Defense Pact signed in August by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, at which the three nations agreed to rapid military deployment to Saudi Arabia. The pact mirrors NATO's collective defense structure: an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all.

Fukai noted that this three-country arrangement forms a geopolitical encirclement of Iran, and drew attention to Pakistan's status as the only nuclear-armed state in the Islamic world. The Houthis are backed by Iran, which is already in effective confrontation with the United States and Israel; whether Iran hardens its posture further is the key variable to watch. Destabilization of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait directly threatens oil supply security, which would push up crude prices and ripple through the Japanese economy.

Brazil's Presidential Election and South America's 'Blue Tide'

In the first round of Brazil's presidential election held on October 4, right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro — a congressman and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro — took 47% of the vote, ahead of incumbent President Lula's 45%. Neither candidate cleared the 50% threshold, so a runoff between the two will be held on the 25th. Flávio has campaigned on a pledge to pardon his father if elected, alongside a platform of hard-line public security measures and strict tax policy. Jair Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula in 2022, was subsequently convicted of involvement in a coup attempt and sentenced to 27 years in prison.

Across South America, a 'Blue Tide' of right-wing governments is rising — a phenomenon also visible in Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia. Fukai identified it as a backlash to the left-wing 'Pink Tide' of the 2000s, with deteriorating public security and economic stagnation as the shared drivers of voter discontent. In Rio de Janeiro, intense fighting between gangs and police killed more than 132 people roughly a year ago; the severity of the security crisis, he argued, is the primary force pushing electorates away from left-wing incumbents.