【10月26日】フランスでデモ続く、政治経済へ与える影響とは？

Two Consecutive Weeks of Mass Protests

On October 24, 2026, protests demanding action on rising prices and improvements to educational conditions swept across France, drawing approximately 410,000 participants according to the French Interior Ministry. That made it the second consecutive week of large-scale demonstrations, following comparable protests on October 17. After the rallies ended, some participants threw stones at security forces — a sign that the social unrest is settling into a prolonged pattern rather than a one-off eruption.

Impact on Public Finances and Markets

The ongoing turmoil is casting a serious shadow over France's fiscal position and financial markets. The country's borrowing costs have climbed to their highest level since 2002, and ratings agency Moody's continues to maintain a negative outlook on France. The government is targeting a significant reduction in a large fiscal deficit, but with parliament in disarray, it remains uncertain whether a budget will pass without disruption.

The Real-Economy Toll — Retail, Tourism, and Transport

Repeated unrest has already inflicted real damage on the retail, tourism, and transport sectors. French supermarket giant Carrefour (カルフール) cut its profit forecast, citing sluggish consumer spending driven by economic anxiety; the announcement sent its share price sharply lower. There are also growing concerns that a deteriorating security environment will reduce tourist numbers and hurt duty-free sales for luxury brands. A nationwide strike by labor unions is scheduled for November 5, further heightening market anxiety that France's economic growth could slow more than expected.

The Presidential Race — A Far-Right vs. Far-Left Scenario

The shape of the presidential election, now just six months away, has changed significantly. Whereas past French presidential contests typically featured a far-right vs. centrist matchup or a conventional right vs. left contest, a runoff between the far right and the far left is now seen as a realistic possibility.

A broad perception has taken hold that the central electoral issue has shifted to law, order, and public security in the wake of the protests and riots, and support for Marine Le Pen (ルペン) of the far-right Rassemblement National (国民連合) — who campaigns on a robust public-safety platform — is widely expected to expand further.

The figure emerging as her principal challenger is Jean-Luc Mélenchon (メランション) of the far-left La France Insoumise (不服従のフランス). Mélenchon and his allies have been blamed by roughly 70% of the public for stoking the protests and riots. Yet, remarkably, the latest opinion polls have repeatedly shown him potentially surpassing centrist candidates to move into second place behind Le Pen. Driving that surge is passionate support from younger voters and low-income earners who harbor deep frustration with the existing political establishment.

Concerns About Spillover Across the EU

Should a Le Pen vs. Mélenchon runoff materialize, there are fears that France's social divisions will become irreparable. Public sentiment is split between those tilting toward the far right in search of order and those backing the far left out of frustration with the status quo, while centrist forces are steadily fading in between. The choices French voters make in next spring's election will set the country's course — and given that France is one of the EU's major powers, the outcome carries profound implications for the international community as a whole. Developments in France demand close attention.