岡部芳彦「ウクライナ最新情勢！旅客列車もドローン攻撃の対象！？」9月28日

The Drone Strike on a Passenger Train: Okabe Was Right Next Door

On September 13, a passenger train on a Ukrainian line near the Polish border was struck by a Russian drone. No one was injured, but just before the attack, another train carrying foreign dignitaries — including former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson — had been stopped near the same location, prompting President Zelensky to strongly condemn the strike. Okabe Yoshihiko, a professor in the Faculty of Economics at Kobe Gakuin University (Kobe Gakuin Daigaku), had taken an earlier train on the same route and had already arrived in Ukraine, so he was unharmed. A Japanese acquaintance on a later train was delayed five hours, and another friend was delayed half a day and missed a flight connection. This line, which links Kyiv and Poland and is used to transport dignitaries, had gone almost entirely unattacked since the war began — Okabe calls the strike "nearly the first" such incident on the route. He also shared a behind-the-scenes detail: a German member of parliament sharing his train car stayed on the phone the whole way, apparently exhilarated at having left Kyiv, making it impossible for Okabe to sleep.

The New "Yellow" Air-Raid Alert, and the Danger of Getting Used to It

Ukraine's air-raid warning used to be a simple binary — it either sounded or it didn't. But in the past few months, a "yellow" level was introduced, similar to Japan's heavy rain warnings. Okabe says red means evacuate, but yellow leaves people unsure how to respond. Days with no warning at all are actually rare, happening only about once every five days or so. Okabe keeps the local warning app installed even while in Japan, and says he gets notifications almost daily. He raised concerns about a "boy who cried wolf" effect, where growing accustomed to frequent warnings dulls people's sensitivity to real danger. During his stays, regardless of the hotel's rank, it has become routine to head down to the shelter on the third basement level (a converted garage) by 7 or 8 p.m., securing a bed early and going to sleep.

Yalta European Strategy Conference: A Gap Between US and European Politicians

Since 2014, Okabe has attended the Yalta European Strategy conference every year, an event that brings together current and former politicians from around the world. This year, President Zelensky was absent for the first time, as he was in Canada. Speakers included three US senators, four US representatives, Boris Johnson, and a former Google chairman. Okabe found it striking that the senators stuck to noncommittal, diplomatic answers, while the representatives clearly declared they would "continue support" — a notable contrast between the two chambers. During an online session, a US representative appeared as an unannounced "secret guest," and remarks seen as conciliatory toward Russia drew boos from the audience.

A Changed President Zelensky

Okabe met Zelensky in 2019, three months after he took office, and at the time was skeptical of what struck him as a populist approach — pursuing only the policies that topped opinion polls. But since the war began, Okabe says Zelensky has shown a willingness to make unpopular decisions, and credits his refusal to flee the capital, Kyiv, on the very day the invasion began with helping sustain the nation's resolve. Zelensky's wife, Olena Zelenska, also visited Okabe's university last year, and Okabe noted that the security surrounding her was incomparably tighter than it had been before the war.

Cutting-Edge Drone Tech and the October 20 Event

The war has driven major advances in Ukraine's drone and AI technology and operational know-how, and Okabe says the Ukrainian government has proposed sharing this technology with Japan even outside military applications. Examples raised include drones for monitoring and surveilling bears, a concept of loading them with chili pepper capsules instead of explosives to drive the animals away, and unmanned ground vehicles that could rescue wounded soldiers without anyone needing to approach — technology that could potentially be applied in disaster-prone Japan. Ukraine is also looking to reduce its reliance on Chinese-made components, and reportedly hopes Japan could become a supplier of parts. An exhibition and matching event for drone technology will be held at Kobe Gakuin University on October 20. Okabe also noted that Russia's Shahed suicide drones have been fitted with jet propulsion this year, reaching speeds of 300 km/h and making interception increasingly difficult.