須田慎一郎「2年目を迎えた高市政権！ここからの課題は？」「衆議院本会議で消費税減税法案が審議入り！」「トランプ大統領、米中露の３カ国首脳会談に意欲！」10月22日

Takaichi Administration's First-Year Report Card and Political Strength

Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae marked one year in office by pledging to "steadily fulfill each campaign promise, one by one," and signaled that combating high prices would remain the centerpiece of her second year. Approval ratings have held around 50% across major polls — a figure that commentator Suda Shinichiro describes as "high by historical standards for a one-year-old administration."

The foundation of that support is unusual. Takaichi won the LDP leadership race without any faction backing, overpowering early frontrunner Koizumi Shinjiro (小泉進次郎) by dominating grassroots party-member and party-friend votes. That momentum carried into the February general election, where the LDP secured a two-thirds supermajority on its own — a margin so large the party had to allocate around a dozen seats to coalition partner Nippon Ishin no Kai (日本維新の会) because it lacked enough candidates to fill them. According to Suda, the prime minister keeps a running checklist of her campaign promises and ticks them off as each is fulfilled.

Why Scandals No Longer Tank Approval Ratings

Two incidents tested the administration: the resignation of the Agriculture Minister over a problematic remark, and subsequent allegations of donation irregularities against his replacement. The impact on approval ratings was limited.

Suda pointed to the case of Miyazaki Kenji (宮崎謙介), a former Lower House member and YouTube co-host, who resigned from the Diet over an affair scandal roughly ten years ago — an episode that cost the Abe administration seven percentage points in the polls. "This time," Suda observed, "the problem was arguably bigger, yet the ratings barely moved."

He offered two explanations. First, background on the messy intra-district political rivalry surrounding the Agriculture Minister's case spread online and softened public judgment. Second, the proliferation of social media and direct communication by politicians themselves has broken the old transmission chain — tabloid scoop, then wide-show amplification, then approval-rating collapse — that was dominant a decade ago. Suda argued that the most important factor for sustaining approval going forward is whether voters feel a genuine improvement in the economy, and he noted that roughly 60% of the prime minister's policy address was devoted to economic measures for exactly that reason.

The Consumption-Tax Cut Bill — Smooth in the Lower House, a Gauntlet in the Upper House

On the afternoon of October 20, two government-submitted bills entered floor deliberation in the Lower House: one to cut the consumption-tax rate on food and beverages by one percentage point, and one introducing an income-linked benefit system known as a refundable tax credit. It is the first time since the consumption tax was introduced in 1989 that parliament has deliberated a tax cut, and the government and ruling parties are targeting passage by the end of the session on December 12.

Passage through the Lower House is all but certain: the LDP-Ishin coalition holds more than two-thirds of seats. The Upper House is the real obstacle. The coalition falls four seats short of a majority, and even if Nihon Hoshuto (日本保守党) throws its two seats in favor, a two-seat gap remains. Any LDP defections — members who abstain or quietly leave the chamber — would make the math worse.

Suda singled out the movements of Komeito (公明党) and the Democratic Party for the People (国民民主党; DPP) as "the most critical variable." A conversation with a senior Komeito official confirmed sympathy for the bill's goal of easing cost-of-living pressure on low- and middle-income households, with the remaining question being what process-level modifications to seek. The DPP already aligns with the "raise take-home pay" direction — the abolition of the gasoline provisional tax rate when the Takaichi administration launched was a symbol of that shared agenda — and Suda expects the party to enter conditional negotiations, accepting the tax cut in principle while pushing for additional measures.

The bill also includes a provision to restore the consumption-tax rate to 8% in two years, simultaneous with the introduction of the refundable tax credit, making the scale of any supplementary benefit payments a further negotiating point. On financing, the government argues that the revenue shortfall from the tax cut will be covered by above-forecast tax receipts, while investment in growth areas will be repaid through future revenue increases — a multi-year framework the opposition is expected to challenge vigorously. Suda also flagged the potential psychological effect: if supermarkets widely advertise "consumption-tax-cut discount sales," the resulting atmosphere of falling prices could carry its own deflationary impact on public sentiment.

Trump Eyes a US-China-Russia Trilateral Summit — The Rush for a Legacy

On October 19, President Trump signaled openness to a trilateral summit with President Putin and President Xi, naming nuclear weapons and denuclearization as the primary agenda items. Reports also indicated that Putin had separately proposed a summit that would include the situation in Ukraine.

Suda framed the move plainly: "This is pure legacy-building — making memories." The Trump administration has two unfinished pieces of business: brokering an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, and settling the Israel-Iran conflict. Trump has a strong desire to go down in history as a president who brought peace, yet the outlook on both fronts remains unclear, and Suda detected "considerable desperation" behind the initiative.

On the midterms, Suda assessed that the conversation has already shifted to "how much the Republicans can limit their losses" — a framing that signals real lame-duck risk for the remaining two years. Both Putin and Xi are watching carefully, aware they need tangible benefits of their own before committing to any summit. And in Washington itself, Suda said, the atmosphere of thinking about a post-Trump era has quietly begun to take shape.