荻上チキ・Session～発信型ニュース・プロジェクト · News
【解説】「高市政権発足1年～どう評価するか（西田亮介）
One year into the Takaichi (高市) administration, sociologist Ryosuke Nishida (西田亮介) — professor at Nihon University and specially appointed professor at Tokyo Institute of Technology — graded the government's record on the NHK Culture Radio programme Session. He found a wide gap between election pledges and enacted policy on consumption tax and cost-of-living measures, raised questions about the coherence of anti-inflation policy, and called for mandatory documentation of all political-bureaucratic contacts. The cabinet's stubbornly high approval rating, he argued, reflects public distrust of the opposition rather than genuine confidence in the government.
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What this episode answers
How far did the Takaichi administration actually fulfil its consumption tax cut pledge?
It fell well short. The two-year reduced rate on food was presented as a firm pledge, but the LDP manifesto only committed to studying the idea through a national council; the council deadlocked, the PM decided unilaterally, and the flagship earned-income tax credit collapsed into a complicated traditional benefit scheme that Nishida called a 'profound let-down.'
Is the administration's cost-of-living policy effective?
Nishida's verdict is 'incoherent.' Corporate prices and energy costs are still rising, consumer prices — which reflect those inputs with a lag — are expected to keep climbing, and the gap between stated policy and economic reality continues to widen.
How should the administration's Diet management be assessed, given its supermajority of over 300 seats?
Criticism has been sustained: cabinet reshuffles are frequent, debate time is short, press conferences are avoided while X posts proliferate, and those posts repeatedly contradict parliamentary answers — all shortcomings Nishida says a government with such a commanding majority has no excuse for.
Does the Diet seat reduction pursued in partnership with Nippon Ishin serve voters' interests?
Nishida is sceptical. Detailed projections show the proposed cuts fall less steeply on coalition seats than on opposition ones, and Japan's legislator-to-population ratio is not especially high to begin with, leading him to conclude the reform does not serve ordinary voters.
Why has the cabinet's approval rating remained persistently high despite ongoing scandals?
Nishida frames it as a reflection of distrust in the opposition rather than trust in the government, compounded by the heavy losses suffered by centrist parties — what he calls the 'centrist shock' — and says the opposition must grapple seriously with why the public still regards the ruling party as the more credible option.
Gap Between Pledge and Reality — 'Study by National Council' Became 'Prime Minister's Unilateral Call'
One year after the Takaichi administration took office, sociologist Ryosuke Nishida sat down with Session to review the government's record. The election that gave the administration its mandate turned largely on consumption taxes and cost-of-living measures, yet once in power the government passed a succession of bills that diverged from its campaign commitments. Nishida cited the enactment of a flag-desecration law as one of several contentious examples.
On consumption tax, a two-year reduced rate limited to food items had been spoken of as a firm 'pledge.' A close reading of the LDP's actual manifesto, however, reveals only a commitment to 'study the matter through a national council.' That council deadlocked without reaching a conclusion, and the prime minister ultimately decided the policy unilaterally. The centrepiece measure — an earned-income tax credit long regarded as the real prize — also collapsed into a conventional, convoluted benefit scheme far removed from what had been envisioned. Nishida called the overall outcome a 'profound let-down,' and noted that key questions around any consumption tax reduction remain unresolved.
The Incoherence of Cost-of-Living Policy
The administration continues to emphasise its cost-of-living measures, but Nishida questions their internal logic. Corporate prices and energy costs are still rising, and consumer prices — which reflect those inputs with a lag — are expected to keep climbing. The gap between stated policy and on-the-ground economic reality is, in his words, 'nothing short of incoherent.'
Diet Management — Despite Holding 300-Plus Seats
The Takaichi administration controls more than 300 seats in the House of Representatives — a majority Nishida describes as without modern precedent — yet its management of the Diet has generated a steady stream of criticism. Cabinet reshuffles have been frequent, debate time has been truncated, and the government has declined to hold press conferences while posting prolifically on X. The content of those X posts has repeatedly contradicted answers given on the floor of the Diet. With a majority this large, Nishida argues, the government could easily afford to engage the opposition carefully and in good faith; the fact that it does not is a deliberate choice.
Ishin Partnership, Seat Reduction, and Foreign Policy Shortfalls
The headline reform pursued in partnership with Nippon Ishin no Kai is a reduction in the total number of Diet seats. Nishida is unimpressed. Detailed projections show the proposed cuts would fall less steeply on governing-coalition seats than on opposition ones, and Japan's legislator-to-population ratio is not especially high by international comparison in the first place. 'I see little sign that this policy actually serves our interests,' he said.
On foreign policy, the record has been poor across several fronts. The administration was absent from a G7 meeting — attributed to inadequate preparation by the Foreign Ministry and contracted vendors — and relations with neighbouring countries remain strained. The one area of relative success Nishida was willing to acknowledge is energy procurement.
What the Persistently High Approval Rating Means — and the Problem of Official Contact Records
Even with the Yanagida (柳田) minister scandal and a sustained run of critical coverage, the cabinet's approval rating has not fallen. Nishida frames this as a problem the opposition must think hard about. The public appears to have concluded that the government and ruling party are still more trustworthy than the alternatives — a dynamic compounded by the heavy electoral losses suffered by centrist parties, which he calls the 'centrist shock.' He also noted that the administration's own communications have been self-contradictory: officials simultaneously argue that if they have done nothing wrong they should simply accept party subsidies, while acknowledging that public scrutiny is understandable — a stance that persuades no one.
On the question of documentation, Nishida made a forceful call for legislation requiring that all contacts between politicians and bureaucrats be recorded as the default rule. A repeating pattern has emerged: documents declared non-existent during the Moritomo-Kake (森友・加計) school scandals, the Cherry-Blossom viewing affair, and the cover-up of Ground Self-Defence Force daily logs from PKO missions were later produced through litigation — yet in each case the core facts were never fully established. In the Yanagida case, inquiries to the minister are being classified as routine ministerial business and therefore exempt from record-keeping requirements, giving Kasumigaseki officials a ready-made excuse to leave no paper trail.
Takeaways
- The administration's consumption tax pledge and the flagship earned-income tax credit both fell far short of what voters were led to expect, laying bare a wide gap between campaign commitments and enacted policy.
- Despite holding a historically large supermajority of over 300 House seats, the Takaichi administration has drawn sustained criticism for abbreviated Diet debate, frequent cabinet reshuffles, avoided press conferences, and open contradictions between its X posts and parliamentary answers.
- The persistently high approval rating reflects distrust of the opposition rather than confidence in the government, and Nishida calls the mandatory recording of all political-bureaucratic contacts an urgent institutional reform that must no longer be deferred.
This article is edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. It is not an official summary — please listen to the episode itself.