2026年 10月20日（火）コメンテーター：野村修也 馬渕磨理子 ゲスト：玉木雄一郎

JAXA H3 Rocket No. 10 Successfully Launched — Bound for Phobos

H3 Rocket No. 10 has been launched successfully. Its mission is to collect soil samples from Phobos, a moon of Mars, and bring them back to Earth, with a planned return in July 2031. Nomura Shuya (Chuo University Law School professor and attorney) highlighted the legal challenges surrounding space development. "There are space treaties, but who can own space resources has not been settled. Left unresolved, it becomes a free-for-all for whoever gets there first." He also flagged the slow progress on international rules governing space debris. On the defence side, he noted that the Japan Self-Defense Forces are pressing ahead with capabilities in the space, cyber, and electromagnetic domains, making satellite-based intelligence-gathering infrastructure increasingly important.

European Protests and the Spillover into Financial Markets

Demonstrations by young people and students that began in France have spread to Milan, Spain, Germany, and Greece. According to economic analyst Mabuchi Mariko, the immediate trigger was a 36% annual rise in gasoline prices driven by the situation in Iran — a particularly heavy blow in Europe given its high dependence on diesel fuel. In France, long-term interest rates have surged to near 4.9% on fiscal-deficit concerns, leaving almost no room for additional government stimulus. Against this backdrop, institutional investors are reportedly making inquiries about selling French government bonds and buying Japanese government bonds. Mabuchi noted that Japan retains the fiscal headroom to maintain gasoline subsidies — a stark contrast to France's situation. Nomura drew a parallel with the Yellow Vest movement, expressing concern about how "purely economic grievances end up being co-opted by far-right and far-left forces."

In currency markets, the dollar-yen rate stood at around ¥158.50, reflecting continued yen weakness. The euro also fell on the back of the French unrest, but the dollar's gains were larger, producing a dollar-dominant session.

Consumption-Tax Reduction Bill Enters Lower House Deliberations

The government's bill to reduce consumption tax on food and beverages entered plenary deliberations in the Lower House on October 20. The ruling coalition aims to pass it through the Lower House by early November and have it enacted before the session ends on December 12. The bill also includes a new income-linked cash-benefit scheme, though questions remain about funding and system design. Mabuchi assessed that "the Kokumin Minshuto plan and the government plan point in the same direction — easing household burdens" — but said the key to finding a compromise lies in how to combine the refundable tax-credit mechanism with measures to reduce social-insurance premium burdens. Nomura raised the problem of social-insurance premiums having functioned as a de-facto tax hike "in a form that does not feel painful," and said he wanted to ask Tamaki about the scale of the planned refund scheme for middle-income earners.

Tamaki's Concrete Proposals on Energy and Security

Tamaki Yuichiro, leader of the Kokumin Minshuto (People's Democratic Party), joined the studio. In addition to making the first visit by an opposition party leader to Ukraine, he had inspected Wakkanai in Hokkaido the previous day. Citing strengthening ties between Russia and North Korea, he said Japan "needs to rebuild its defences in the north, not just concentrate on reinforcing the southwestern islands." He also visited the underground facility roughly 500 metres below the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Research Institute in Horonobe, Hokkaido, where research on the final disposal of spent nuclear fuel is under way. "Regardless of where you stand on nuclear power, back-end issues are something everyone must confront," he said, calling on the national government to provide sustained support to the five municipalities that have raised their hands to participate.

On energy policy, Tamaki identified as a problem the fact that only 12 of Japan's 33 existing reactors are operating. He estimated that boosting output through turbine upgrades and raising the operational rate to near 90% "could generate electricity equivalent to building four new reactors." On SMRs (small modular reactors), he introduced plans for Hitachi and GE Vernova to build units in the United States as part of the roughly ¥80 trillion investment package agreed with the Trump administration. He argued that pursuing the best energy mix in combination with renewables — and raising Japan's energy self-sufficiency rate from its current roughly 15% — is indispensable both as a yen-depreciation countermeasure and for economic security. He also expressed hope that advances in battery storage technology would resolve the curtailment problem caused by surplus renewable power.

Prime Minister Takaichi's Bond Remarks and the 'Three Brothers of Fiscal Pressure'

Prime Minister Takaichi, responding to a question from Kokumin Minshuto's Hamano Yoshifumi in the Upper House Budget Committee, said she "does not rule out issuing government bonds" to fund the consumption-tax cut, then felt compelled to clarify the remark on X (formerly Twitter). Tamaki responded by saying "money has no colour — what matters is how you manage the whole," signalling that he prefers the big picture over fine-print disputes.

He then argued that the real fiscal pressure does not come from the roughly ¥10 trillion over two years that the consumption-tax reduction would cost, but from three other items he called the "Three Brothers of Fiscal Pressure": (1) defence spending — ¥13.8 trillion to achieve the 2%-of-GDP target set in the three security documents; (2) growth investment — ¥10 trillion in year one; and (3) rising interest payments plus increases in medical, nursing-care, and other social-security costs driven by higher interest rates. He insisted that securing funding for these three is the real debate that must take priority.