2026年 10月21日（水）コメンテーター：ジョセフ・クラフト、ゲスト：小林鷹之

BayStars Fever Opens the Show

Economic analyst Joseph Kraft walked into the studio in a Yokohama DeNA BayStars uniform—number 64, complete with a captain's armband—kicking off the show on a festive note. The number 64 is a custom order referencing his birth year, 1964. With the Japan Series set to open that Saturday at Yokohama Stadium, Kraft reminisced about the team's championship two years ago and drew laughs by crediting the win to "sending a 'lose to SoftBank beam' from the stadium in Fukuoka." He also revealed that BayStars Ambassador Miura Daisuke (三浦大輔) would make a surprise live appearance on the 8 a.m. program *Kakehana Happy*, prompting Kraft to declare he would "cancel his meetings and stay."

Morning Papers at a Glance

The Asahi Shimbun led with "AI misused in unauthorized access," reporting the possible involvement of a China-linked AI. Kraft noted that small and medium-sized businesses that cannot afford AI-based defenses are the most exposed, and called for public-private cooperation that also extends to protecting subcontractors.

The Mainichi Shimbun gave prominent coverage to JAXA's successful launch of H3 Rocket No. 15, which inserted the Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) spacecraft into its transfer orbit. The mission aims to retrieve the first-ever samples from a Martian moon. As AI investment enters a correction phase, interest in the space sector is rising; the launch also dovetails with Nikkei reports about opening H3 to commercial launches, making a private-sector-led space industry increasingly tangible.

The Sankei Shimbun topped its front page with the case of the Hokkaido Shimbun reporter detained in Russia. The paper cited Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich—held for more than 16 months from March 2023—who said in an online interview that his work had been "ordinary reporting." Kraft said he understood the Japanese government's low-key stance but was direct: "Japan should lobby the G7 to pressure Russia—public pressure is the most effective tool." He also criticized major media outlets for staying quiet while only the Japan Federation of Newspaper Workers' Unions had issued a statement.

Consumption-Tax Cut Bill Enters Lower House Debate

A bill to reduce the consumption tax on food and beverages entered its explanatory and questioning phase in a Lower House plenary session, with Prime Minister Takaichi (高市) in attendance. The measure would mark the first downward revision since the consumption tax was introduced in 1989—a two-year temporary cut that also includes income-linked benefit provisions. Prime Minister Takaichi stated: "After two years, I will take responsibility and restore the rate without fail."

Kraft was cautiously optimistic, saying the coalition commands an overwhelming majority in the Lower House and appears capable of covering the four Upper House seats it lacks with support from the Conservative Party. He stressed, however, that the biggest challenge is explaining the funding: while revenue offsets for the tax cut itself are in place, overall budget financing—covering defense spending and the ¥370 trillion public-private strategic investment program (roughly ¥10 trillion in year one alone)—remains opaque. The extraordinary Diet session runs through December 12, and the defense three documents are expected to be the next major flashpoint after the consumption-tax bill.

AI Stocks Enter Correction — Market Wrap

The Nikkei Stock Average fell 841.28 points to 64,075.42, extending its decline. Concerns over the financial health of U.S. data-center company CoreWeave spread distrust across AI-related stocks broadly. The Dow Jones, by contrast, rose 529 points, led by healthcare shares. The yen traded around ¥158.18 to the dollar, briefly strengthening to the ¥157 range on expectations of progress in U.S.-Iran talks.

Kraft identified a structural shift: "In the past, overheating AI investment drove up long-term rates, which weighed on stocks. Now, rates are falling and stocks are falling simultaneously—that signals a shift to a risk-off market." He described CoreWeave as emblematic of the AI rally, saying its troubles have made visible a concern that stretches to companies like OpenAI and Anthropic—namely, that "there is no clear path to recouping investment." Firms such as Meta, Google, and SpaceX that generate solid profits from their core businesses are relatively protected, but companies whose entire model rests on AI face a difficult stretch ahead.

Takaichi Administration at One Year — Kobayashi Takayuki's Three Priorities

Exactly one year after the Takaichi cabinet was formed, LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Kobayashi Takayuki (小林鷹之) joined the studio. Calling it "a rewarding year," he laid out three priorities for year two.

First, passing every piece of legislation the coalition submits, even while remaining a minority in the Upper House. The coalition achieved a 100% bill-passage rate during the previous special Diet session, and Kobayashi pledged to personally lead outreach to opposition parties—a push he linked directly to next spring's unified local elections.

Second, accelerating items in the coalition agreement with Nippon Ishin no Kai (日本維新の会) where implementation has reached only 40–50%, including constitutional revision, which remains unrealized.

Third, conducting proactive party-level diplomacy as the international order grows turbulent. With President Trump signaling interest in a three-way summit with Putin and Xi in what Kobayashi described as a potentially "runaway" situation, Kraft added that leveraging Prime Minister Takaichi's trust relationship with Trump to protect Japanese national interests will be critical. The APEC Leaders' Summit on November 17–18 is expected to serve as a key diplomatic venue.