2026年 10月9日（金）コメンテーター：永濱利廣

Climax Series Eve and Baseball Talk

The regular seasons for both the Central and Pacific Leagues ended on October 8, with the Climax Series (CS) First Stage opening the following day. Nagahama, a Giants fan, revealed he planned to attend the opening game at Tokyo Dome. The show revisited a lighthearted story: Nagahama once ran into fellow commentator Kataoka Goshi (片岡剛士), a Chunichi Dragons fan, at a Giants-Dragons game — a game the Dragons lost 14–1. Kataoka had left around the sixth or seventh inning and only learned of the blowout after getting home. The program also noted that Kudo Kimiyasu (工藤公康) had reached 200 career wins as a Giant, and highlighted Hanshin Tigers outfielder Sato Teruaki (佐藤輝明) clinching the Triple Crown — the first in four years since Murakami Munetaka (村上宗隆) and the first Tiger since Randy Bass. Game 1 of the CS (Giants vs. DeNA, Tokyo Dome, 2 p.m. day game) was also set to air on Nippon Broadcasting.

FX and Stock Markets: Iran Jitters Drive Wild Swings

Market analyst Nakamura Satoshi (中村聡) of Gaitame.com Research Institute provided the market wrap. The prior New York session closed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 51.77 points to 51,231.64. The Nasdaq Composite, weighted toward high-tech mega-caps, fell 345.35 points to 27,193.34. The yen ended around 157.88 per dollar, roughly 20 sen stronger than the prior close.

The session's driver was Iran. Reports that the United States might launch a large-scale military operation against Iran before the midterm elections — scheduled for November 3 — sent WTI crude futures up more than 1.5%. US long-term yields also rose, accelerating dollar buying and pushing the yen temporarily to around 158.36. Later in the New York afternoon, President Trump stated he would not strike Iran before the midterms; crude gave back gains, dollar selling and yen buying followed, and markets settled. The two dominant market themes right now, according to Nakamura, are French fiscal and political conditions and the Iran situation. France is facing mounting fiscal concerns ahead of its next general election, with large protests already breaking out domestically and raising spillover risks for the broader eurozone.

On the US midterms, Nagahama noted that the ruling party losing is the historical norm, but he also floated the view that "a Harris victory might actually be the worst outcome." Fulfilling her pledge of $5,000 per person in transfers would worsen already-strained US fiscal balances and risk reigniting inflation, he argued.

BOJ Sakura Report: AI Demand Beginning to Reach Regional and Smaller Firms

The Bank of Japan's Regional Economic Report (Sakura Report), released October 8, upgraded the overall economic assessments for two of the country's nine regions — Tohoku and Shikoku — attributing the improvement to an expansion in global AI-related demand boosting local production.

Nagahama shared a firsthand account from a visit to northern Iwate Prefecture last month. The president of a small local firm handling coating for semiconductor manufacturing equipment told him that sales this fiscal year are eight times those of the prior year, with the following year expected to be another three times higher still. He also noted that while the BOJ Tankan showed improvement in large-firm manufacturing sentiment, a closer reading revealed that mid-sized and small manufacturers were improving by an even larger margin, led by electronic parts, production machinery, and non-ferrous metals — all AI- and semiconductor-linked sectors. On the Nikkei 225, he pointed out that roughly two-thirds of its overall price movement can be explained by just about four of its 225 constituent stocks, meaning gains are far from evenly distributed. He acknowledged that Prime Minister Takagi's (高木) industrial cluster policy points in the right direction for regional revitalization, but cautioned that its economic ripple effect is not as broad as that of the automotive industry.

Labor-Shortage Bankruptcies Hit Record High — but Unemployment Is Not Rising

Tokyo Shoko Research reported 5,373 corporate bankruptcies in the first half of FY2026, up 3.8% year-on-year — the highest first-half figure in 13 years and a fifth straight annual increase. Of these, 240 were attributed to labor shortages, up 17.0% and the highest on record since comparable data began in FY2013.

Nagahama explained the rise on two levels. First, repayments on zero-zero loans — the interest-free, unsecured COVID-era financing — have now kicked in fully, flushing out firms that had been kept on life support well past their natural lifespan. Second, labor-shortage bankruptcies have grown increasingly visible. Analysis in the White Paper on Small and Medium Enterprises shows that most bankrupt firms had four or fewer employees, operations where losing even one person can make continuation impossible. He was careful to note, however, that despite rising bankruptcies, unemployment has not increased — displaced workers appear to be finding jobs elsewhere, making the macro picture less alarming for now. He warned that if unemployment does begin to turn up, the dynamic will shift, with potential implications for the BOJ's rate-hike deliberations.

Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy and the 'Post-Reflation' Debate

A listener email prompted discussion of a Saturday Nikkei interview with Finance Minister Katayama (片山). The article reported that Nagahama and Wakita Masazumi (若田部昌澄), both private-sector members of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (Keizai Zaisei Shimon Kaigi), had agreed that "now is not the time for reflationary policy." Nagahama clarified that reflation-style policies have never actually come up in council discussions, and that he refrains from commenting on BOJ monetary policy out of respect for the central bank's independence. He stressed that the council's mandate is to discuss broad measures to lift the overall economy and to deliberate on fiscal management, including budget formulation.