Round Up World Now!（2026.10.2放送分）

US-China Summit — Diverging Readouts and the "Narrative" Strategy

Following last week's US-China leaders' summit, the two governments published separate accounts of what was agreed. The American readout stated that China would import at least 10 million tons of coal annually from the United States starting in 2027 and 2028, and that both sides would continue addressing concerns over rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains. China's readout contained neither item.

Ito pointed out that the same structure appeared at the May US-China summit, when the Trump side announced China had committed to purchasing corn — a pledge that was slow to materialize and ultimately contributed to an extension of the tariff truce. "The principle that both sides will faithfully carry out what they agreed at a summit has broken down," he said. He also raised concern that the United States had promoted a narrative framing China and the US as wartime allies in World War II, and that China subsequently used that framing to single out Japan by name. Ito's reading: "China wants to achieve its goals on Taiwan without a fight. It is simultaneously applying psychological pressure on the Taiwanese people and working to deepen Japan's sense of isolation."

Japan-China and Russia-Japan Relations — Japanese Economic Power as Leverage

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Tokyo with former Foreign Minister Iwaya and declared that Japan should "quickly correct its mistaken statements on the Taiwan issue," that Japan-China relations are "in a difficult phase," and that normalization is necessary. China enacted its revised National Defense Mobilization Law on October 1, establishing a framework that makes it easier to redirect civilian infrastructure and advanced technology to military purposes during a contingency.

Russian President Putin, speaking at an international conference in Moscow, criticized sanctions against Russia while expressing support for Japanese companies to continue their operations there. Ito observed: "Both China and Russia know their economies cannot function without Japanese capital and technology. No matter how adversarial the relationship, they cannot afford to say 'stay out.'" He concluded that Japan's economic strength has become a de facto diplomatic lever.

Interest Rates and Markets — An Uneasy Month Before the Midterms

The US 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.03%, its highest level in roughly 20 months. Major homebuilders are reporting that half of prospective buyers visiting new developments cannot qualify for a mortgage.

Ito cited two reasons why long rates keep climbing even as Treasury Secretary Bessent has increased bond purchases by two to three times: robust capital demand to build out AI infrastructure, and elevated oil prices stemming from the still-unresolved Strait of Hormuz passage issue. He warned that if the 10-year Treasury yield pushes past 5% and eventually reaches 6–7%, "there would be no need to hold equities at all." With the FOMC meeting scheduled just before the early-November midterms, the consensus is for rates to be held steady, Ito said, "but we are entering an uneasy month where nothing can be ruled out." He also noted that a methodological revision to the PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — nudged the inflation reading lower, contributing to reduced expectations for a rate hike.

AI — Governance Agreement and Exploding Chip Demand

President Trump hosted the CEOs of leading US AI companies at the White House and had them sign a governance agreement on AI development responsibilities. The document rests on four pillars: building internal controls to prevent runaway AI; establishing in-house teams to verify that systems behave as intended; engaging third-party auditors; and creating independent board committees. All four are voluntary commitments, and the agreement carries no enforcement mechanism.

Memory-chip giant Micron Technology announced revenues of $61.5 billion (approximately ¥9.7 trillion) for its September–November 2026 quarter, 4.5 times the year-earlier figure. Ito was bullish: "The demand for infrastructure on the road to a fully AI-powered society is enormous, and it will continue for some time."

John Collison, co-founder of payments company Stripe, reported at a Tokyo event that payments for "agentic commerce" — where AI agents handle everything from product search and comparison to purchase — are surging. Meta's AI "Muse" has surpassed 5 million downloads in the United States and uses Stripe for payments, though the service is not yet available in Japan. Ito acknowledged the convenience of AI agents while urging viewers to "think carefully about the risks before using them."

Woven City — Toyota's Experimental City Opens Nationwide from October

As of October 1, Toyota's experimental city Woven City, built in Shizuoka Prefecture, began accepting nationwide tour applications. Ito visited on a press tour in mid-September and called it "worth seeing." An AI camera system logs and analyzes the behavior of pedestrians every 10 seconds, adjusting traffic-signal timing in real time — for example, extending crossing time if a child falls. The city, built on the site of a former Toyota factory, is home to approximately 100 households, with monthly rents ranging from roughly ¥50,000 to ¥280,000. The nearest station is Mishima, about 40 minutes by taxi, and advance registration is required for all visits.