ニュース 2026年10月26日午前04時00分
Japan's Meteorological Research Institute announced that global warming likely increased rainfall by up to roughly 23% across six cases of record-breaking heavy rain that struck the country between August and September 2026. The New York Times published a poll showing Vice President Vance leading the 2028 Republican presidential field while Democrats remain fragmented with no clear front-runner. Separately, Dakar Rally organizers cancelled the January 2027 Saudi Arabia event, citing recent regional tensions, and said the race will move to a different location.
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What this episode answers
What method did the Meteorological Research Institute use to analyze the relationship between global warming and heavy rainfall?
The institute ran high-resolution weather model simulations comparing actual observed rainfall with a hypothetical scenario in which warming-induced temperature rises had not occurred; increased atmospheric water vapor that caused rain clouds to develop more intensely was identified as the primary driver.
By how much did warming increase rainfall in each case, including Typhoon No. 25 and the Chiba heavy rain?
Typhoon No. 25 and the Chiba heavy rain each showed a 22.8% increase, the Fukui Prefecture heavy rain of August 29–30 showed 22.9%, and the Tokai heavy rain of September 8 showed 15.7%; all six cases recorded rainfall increases.
What are the candidate support ratings for both parties in the New York Times poll on the 2028 U.S. presidential race?
Among Republicans, Vance leads at 33%, followed by Rubio at 23% and Trump at 8%; among Democrats, Harris leads at 12%, followed by Newsom at 9% and Buttigieg at 7%, with 45% of Democratic respondents saying they did not know.
Why was the Dakar Rally's Saudi Arabia hosting cancelled, and what will happen going forward?
Organizers announced the cancellation on October 25 citing recent regional developments — specifically ongoing Houthi rebel attacks in Yemen — and said the rally will be held in a different region, with details to be announced later.
What views did the Meteorological Research Institute official express about future warming impacts on rainfall?
Kawase Hiroaki (川瀬博明), head of the First Research Laboratory, warned that rainfall risks increasing further as warming progresses and stressed the need to recognize that rain patterns from typhoons and weather fronts are already changing from what they used to be.
Warming Raised Heavy-Rain Totals by Up to 23%, Meteorological Research Institute Finds
The Japan Meteorological Agency's Meteorological Research Institute has released analysis of six cases of record-breaking heavy rainfall that occurred across Japan between August and September 2026, concluding that global warming very likely increased rainfall totals by up to approximately 23%.
The six cases studied were the Chiba torrential rain, heavy rain in the Hokuriku region, Typhoon No. 25, and three additional events. Using high-resolution weather model simulations, researchers compared the rainfall that was actually recorded against the amounts that a hypothetical scenario — one in which warming-induced temperature rises had not occurred — would have produced.
The results showed increases across every single case. Typhoon No. 25 recorded a 22.8% increase; the storm caused landslides and flooding from levee breaches centered on Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures and expanded the geographic area affected by heavy rain. The Chiba torrential rain also came in at 22.8%. Heavy rain that struck Fukui Prefecture on August 29–30 showed the largest increase at 22.9%, while the Tokai region event of September 8 registered a 15.7% rise.
The institute attributes the increases primarily to higher levels of atmospheric water vapor resulting from rising temperatures, which allowed rain clouds to develop more intensely. Kawase Hiroaki (川瀬博明), head of the institute's First Research Laboratory, said: "As warming progresses, there is a real risk that rainfall will increase even further. We need to recognize that the way rain falls from typhoons and frontal systems is already changing from what we have known, and prepare accordingly."
2028 U.S. Presidential Race — Vance Leads Republicans, Democrats Lack a Clear Choice
The New York Times reported the results of a 2028 presidential preference poll on October 24, conducted jointly with Siena College from October 12–19 among 3,494 registered voters nationwide.
On the Republican side, Vice President Vance topped the field at 33%. Secretary of State Rubio came second at 23%, with President Trump third at 8%. Under the U.S. Constitution, Trump is barred from seeking a third term.
Among Democrats, former Vice President Harris led at 12%. California Governor Newsom placed second at 9%, followed by Pete Buttigieg — who served as Transportation Secretary in the Biden administration — at 7%. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a leading figure of the progressive left, came fourth at 6%, and Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, running for reelection in this midterm cycle, placed fifth at 4%.
A striking 45% of Democratic respondents said they did not know whom they would support. The Times analysis noted that while Republicans showed broad alignment behind continuing the Trump-era direction into 2028, Democrats displayed no consensus on a standard-bearer.
Dakar Rally Cancels Saudi Arabia Hosting — Race to Move to Different Region
On October 25, organizers of the Dakar Rally — widely regarded as the world's most grueling motorsport event — announced that next January's race, which had been planned for Saudi Arabia, will not take place there and will instead be held in a different region. The decision was attributed to recent regional developments; further details are to be announced.
The Dakar Rally has been held in Saudi Arabia since 2020, with Japanese teams among the regular participants. Saudi Arabia has faced sustained attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebel forces, prompting a string of international conferences and events to be cancelled or postponed. The Dakar Rally's relocation is seen as part of that same pattern of disruption.
Takeaways
- All six cases of record-breaking heavy rain in Japan's summer of 2026 showed warming-driven rainfall increases, with the largest reaching 22.9%, according to Meteorological Research Institute simulations.
- A New York Times/Siena College poll puts Vice President Vance at the top of the 2028 Republican field with 33%, while 45% of Democratic voters cannot yet name a preferred candidate.
- The Dakar Rally has cancelled its planned January 2027 Saudi Arabia event due to ongoing Houthi attacks in the region and will announce an alternative location at a later date.
This article is edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. It is not an official summary — please listen to the episode itself.