【三牧聖子】2026年10月19日 「アメリカ中間選挙」について

The Prolonged Iran War and the Collapse of the 'Peace President' Image

Trump declared upon taking office that he would be "the peace president," and had what he regarded as a success story: military action against Venezuela ended in a single day. Iran, however, is categorically different in geographic scale and political structure, and the war has ground on for more than six months without resolution. Even at the outset—when Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed—Trump's approval rating stood at only around 40%, and the public's disillusionment runs deep. Voters who chose Trump precisely because they were tired of war now find themselves in another one.

The contradiction is especially sharp given that the Trump administration itself had long condemned the Iraq War as "a mistaken war launched on the pretext of weapons of mass destruction." Reports that the administration has been underreporting the death toll have intensified criticism that it refuses to confront the human cost of the conflict. Adding to the damage, Iran's nuclear ambitions appear to have hardened rather than weakened: being attacked during negotiations has only strengthened Tehran's resolve, leaving the original objective unachieved.

The Midterm Landscape—Democrats Targeting the House

With all House seats up for election roughly two weeks from the broadcast date, Democrats are broadly expected to recapture a majority. Retaking the Senate—where only one-third of seats are contested—is a higher bar, but strong candidates are running in competitive states and Democrats are not ruling out a Senate majority either.

Three factors are driving Democratic voter motivation. First, opposition to the Iran War. Second, suspicions surrounding Trump's personal wealth increase of approximately ¥220 billion since taking office. Third, a conflict-of-interest problem involving son-in-law Jared Kushner, who serves as a Middle East peace envoy while simultaneously pursuing business in the region. A Democratic House majority would activate investigative powers and open a path toward impeachment proceedings capable of exposing two years of political corruption—though final removal would require a two-thirds Senate vote.

On the Republican side, gerrymandering has effectively added roughly ten seats that would otherwise trend Democratic, and Elon Musk has poured in what may be the largest political donation in US history. Mimaki notes, however, that "Musk's involvement may itself be alarming independent voters and boosting Democratic turnout."

Japan and Canada Reducing US Dependence

The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has delivered a direct blow to Japan's energy prices. On top of that, Japan was effectively coerced through tariff pressure into committing to more than $500 billion in US investment—equivalent to over ¥80 trillion at current exchange rates. In response, Canada has been repairing ties with China while maintaining its US relationship and exploring associate membership in the EU. Mimaki describes "omnidirectional diplomacy to reduce dependence on America" as now a common current running through US alliances.

Japan, however, is an outlier. Remarks by Takaichi in the Diet have pushed Japan-China relations to their worst level in years, with no prospect of even a leaders' summit at APEC. Trump, meanwhile, has consistently emphasized his personal rapport with Xi Jinping while avoiding strong statements on Taiwan. Mimaki warns that if Japan loses its diplomatic channel with China as the US and China draw closer, increasing defense spending could create a vicious cycle in which defensive capability improves but actual danger increases in tandem.

The Rise of Democratic Socialism in America

The growing openness to socialist language in American discourse—once dismissed as enemy ideology during the Cold War—reflects a starkly unequal society in which the top 10% holds 70% of the nation's wealth. Policies such as rent freezes, publicly operated supermarkets to keep food prices in check, and higher taxes on the wealthy command majority support even among Republican voters, according to surveys.

Senator Bernie Sanders, 85, is touring the country on his "Fight the Oligarchy" tour—supporting the book of the same title (Chiheisha, ¥1,980 including tax)—and rallying democratic socialist candidates ahead of the midterms. Mimaki observed that "ideas Sanders has championed alone for decades may become mainstream in the Democratic Party in this election." Grievances over AI data centers straining local water and electricity supplies while profits flow to a handful of companies have also surfaced as a campaign issue, making wealth inequality one of the central fault lines of the election.