「米中首脳会談について、武田一顕さんが解説！」今週のタイムス・レポート【2026.9.26 OA】

Three Principles for Reading Chinese Diplomacy

Journalist Kazuaki Takeda, a former TBS Radio parliamentary correspondent who joined the show by phone, drew on more than 30 years of covering Chinese diplomacy to outline three principles that he says underpin virtually every Chinese foreign-policy move.

**① Don't get attacked.** China is surrounded by neighboring states, and its leaders carry a constant awareness of worst-case physical danger. Takeda cited concrete examples: the US killing Iran's top military commander on the opening day of its war with Iran, and US attempts to detain Venezuelan President Maduro. "For China's leaders, this is not a fantasy scenario," he said.

**② Become equals.** For more than a century since the Opium War, China endured invasion and humiliation at the hands of foreign powers. As a reaction, "being equal to other nations"—and especially being seen as America's equal—sits at the very heart of Chinese diplomacy.

**③ The troublemaker strategy.** Where Japanese diplomacy prizes avoiding friction, China deliberately cultivates the impression that crossing it is more trouble than it is worth. This, Takeda argues, functions as a negotiating deterrent.

A Perfect Score for China

The Trump-Xi summit took place at the White House on September 24, 2026—the second face-to-face meeting since Trump's visit to Beijing in May. The two sides also announced two more meetings before the end of the year, locking in a total of four summits in 2026.

Scoring the meeting against his three principles, Takeda found China had achieved all three.

- **Safety: achieved.** "You don't fire a missile at someone you're meeting four times in the same year. The frequency of the meetings itself functions as a safety valve." - **Equality: achieved.** Trump personally traveled to Andrews Air Force Base and laid out a red carpet to welcome Xi. "The image of the leader of the world's most powerful nation coming out to greet him in person works as proof—for a domestic Chinese audience—that China has become America's equal." - **Troublemaker strategy: achieved.** China's side published a detailed account of the talks, including the pointed demand that "America maintain its position of opposing Taiwan independence." Trump, who normally posts about everything, said almost nothing on social media about the summit. "The fact that they silenced him to that degree is itself a Chinese victory," Takeda said flatly.

"We Fought Together"—and the History Wars

During the summit Trump declared, "We fought together." Xi went further, invoking the Hump Route (ハンプルート)—the WWII Allied airlift that crossed the Himalayan peaks from India into China, named because the mountain ridgelines resemble a camel's back—as a symbol of US-China cooperation.

There is a significant historical problem here. America's wartime partner on the Hump Route was Chiang Kai-shek's Republic of China, not today's People's Republic of China. The successor state to the Republic of China is present-day Taiwan. Takeda noted that "both sides are using history in whichever way suits them." Taiwanese media criticized both Xi and Trump sharply, saying each was distorting the historical record.

Was Takaichi's Meeting "Completely Meaningless"?

Two to three days before the US-China summit, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met Trump in New York and announced they had reached "a shared understanding on China." That framing quickly unraveled: just days later, Trump and Xi were exchanging "we fought together" pleasantries, and Japan's diplomatic presence evaporated.

Taiwanese media called Takaichi's New York meeting "completely meaningless" and said Trump had "cost her face." Takeda observed: "Japan tends to defer its assessments indefinitely, but this is the objective international verdict."

Japan's Position and the Road Ahead

Takeda summarized Japan's situation in a single phrase: "completely left behind." Takaichi's pro-Taiwan remarks last November have kept Sino-Japanese friction simmering, with no clear signal that Tokyo intends to repair the relationship. Foreign Minister Tsuyoshi Iwaya was scheduled to visit China the following week, though the reportedly strained relationship between Takaichi and Iwaya casts doubt on what he can deliver.

Takaichi herself is set to travel to China in November for APEC, making the weeks before that visit the critical window for any relationship-building. Meanwhile, panda diplomacy is moving on the US-China front: Xi reportedly promised to send two pandas to the United States "within a few days." "Pandas for Japan? That's probably out of the question," Takeda said with a wry laugh.