年率37％！？利息だけで毎日ランチ代がタダになる通貨の正体！？
A former securities broker turned financial planner breaks down how FX traders are chasing a 37% Turkish policy rate—and why the math is more dangerous than it looks. The episode also covers Japan's professional baseball attendance reaching a record 27.17 million for the third straight year, and the Bank of Japan's quiet pivot from 'hitting' its 2% inflation target to 'stabilising around' it—a shift with real consequences for government debt.
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What this episode answers
How is the 692% annual yield figure calculated for Turkish lira FX trading?
Turkey's policy rate is 37%, and holding 10,000 lira in FX requires a margin of only about ¥1,300. That position earns roughly ¥25 per day in swap points—about ¥9,000 per year—making the calculated annual yield 692% on the ¥1,300 margin.
Why has the Turkish lira collapsed from ¥90 per lira in 2007 to roughly ¥3 today?
The root cause is Turkey's chronic inflation combined with a policy rate kept far too low relative to that inflation. By 2022, inflation hit 70–80% while the policy rate was held near 10%, driving the real rate to around minus 40% and accelerating the currency's collapse.
What theories and factors determine exchange rates?
Four main theories were presented: real interest rate differentials, purchasing power parity (Big Mac Index), the balance-of-payments theory, and the monetary approach (money supply growth). In practice, exchange rates under a floating system reflect a combination of all these forces.
Why has NPB attendance hit an all-time high for three consecutive years?
IT companies entering team ownership after the 2004 Kintetsu-Orix merger, the introduction of interleague play, the Climax Series giving third-place teams a path to the championship, and aggressive marketing by individual clubs all combined to drive the record numbers.
What does the Bank of Japan mean by 'inflation tax,' and how does it relate to government debt?
When prices rise, the real value of outstanding government bonds declines, effectively shrinking the debt burden. At 3.6% annual inflation sustained for 20 years the real debt halves, and rising consumption- and income-tax revenues add to the effect, suggesting the government may be quietly tolerating mild inflation.
How Turkish Lira FX Trading Generates a Triple-Digit "Yield"
Financial planner Fujino-san (藤野さん), a former securities broker, was introduced via a President Online article as someone who actively trades Turkish lira in FX. Turkey's current policy rate stands at 37%, and the lira trades at roughly ¥3.20. To hold 10,000 lira in FX—a position worth about ¥32,000—you need a margin deposit of only around ¥1,300. That position earns approximately ¥25 per day in swap points, or about ¥9,000 per year. Measured against the ¥1,300 margin, the implied annual yield is 692%.
Swap points are the daily interest-rate differential a trader receives when holding a high-yield currency against a low-yield one. The amount is roughly the policy-rate spread minus the broker's cut, credited each day. One further advantage of FX over conventional foreign-currency deposits is the transaction cost: some FX brokers charge as little as 0.3 sen per side, compared with the ¥1 one-way (¥2 round-trip) spread typical at banks—a difference of 333 times.
Fujino-san says he intends to hold his lira position indefinitely, averaging down on dips, accepting currency-depreciation risk in exchange for a long holding period. For those using FX as a substitute for a foreign-currency deposit, keeping leverage at around 2× was recommended. One caveat: FX accounts fall outside Japan's deposit insurance scheme, so a broker failure would put client funds at risk.
Why the Lira Has Lost 97% of Its Value—and What Drives Exchange Rates
In 2007, one Turkish lira bought roughly ¥90. Today it fetches just over ¥3—a decline to about one-thirtieth of its former value. ¥900,000 worth of lira bought back then would be worth around ¥30,000 now.
The culprit is Turkey's chronic inflation, which runs at 7–8% even in calm times, and a political decision to keep rates suppressed. After COVID, inflation reached 70–80%, yet the policy rate was held near 10% at the then-president's insistence. By 2023, the real rate had fallen to roughly minus 40%—inflation at 50%, policy rate at 8.5%—an extreme that crushed the currency. As of 2026 the policy rate has been raised to 37–38%, finally pushing the real rate back into positive territory.
Four theories for what drives exchange rates were outlined. **① Real interest rate differentials**: if the policy rate minus inflation is negative, the currency tends to weaken. **② Purchasing power parity**: the "law of one price" holds that the same goods should cost the same everywhere; the Big Mac Index is a common proxy, though differences in labour costs, rents, and utilities limit its real-world precision. **③ Balance of payments**: countries running current-account surpluses tend to see their currencies strengthen. **④ The monetary approach**: expanding the money supply tends to weaken a currency. The yen's slide from the ¥70s to ¥150–160 after the Bank of Japan's large-scale asset purchases under Governor Kuroda was cited as a textbook example.
The episode also covered the "impossible trinity" of international finance: free capital flows, independent monetary policy, and a stable exchange rate cannot all be achieved simultaneously. Japan and the G7 nations choose free capital flows and monetary independence, accepting a floating exchange rate. China preserves the first two by restricting capital mobility, keeping the renminbi stable against the dollar.
NPB Attendance Hits a Third Straight All-Time High
Nippon Professional Baseball's 2026 pennant-season attendance reached 27.17 million—a third consecutive record. That is up roughly 37% from the 19.92 million recorded in 2005, with the per-game average rising from 23,500 to 31,600. The Pacific League showed particularly strong growth. The Japan Series begins on the 24th.
The modern era's turning point was the 2004 merger of the Osaka Kintetsu Buffaloes and Orix, which prompted Rakuten's expansion-team entry, SoftBank's acquisition of the Daiei Hawks, and DeNA's purchase of the Yokohama BayStars in 2012. IT-sector ownership brought professional sports-business discipline to club management. The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters relocated from Tokyo Dome to Hokkaido and built their own stadium, expanding their fan base substantially.
In the postwar Showa era, a 1954 National Tax Agency ruling allowed clubs to book operating costs as advertising expenses, reducing the incentive to maximise revenue—and with Giants games routinely drawing 20%-plus TV ratings, the status quo was comfortable. The Yomiuri Shimbun's circulation has since fallen from over 10 million to below 5 million, fundamentally changing the economic backdrop. The Climax Series format draws criticism for diluting the meaning of the pennant race but is credited with keeping fans engaged deep into the season.
The Bank of Japan's Inflation Target and the Reality of the "Inflation Tax"
Governor Ueda shifted the Bank of Japan's public framing from "bringing inflation up to 2%" toward "stabilising it around 2%." The official Ministry of Internal Affairs core CPI (excluding fresh food) stood at +1.7% as of August, but the BOJ's own index—which strips out subsidy effects—shows +2.6%, a level sustained for 23 consecutive months. With the policy rate at 1.25%, the real rate remains negative on the government's own figures. Genuinely restraining inflation would likely require raising the policy rate to 2–3%.
The "inflation tax" concept was explained as follows: when prices rise, the real value of outstanding government bonds falls, lightening the debt burden without an explicit write-down. At 3.6% annual inflation sustained for 20 years, the real value of government debt would halve. Because consumption-tax and income-tax revenues also grow with prices, the government has an implicit incentive to tolerate mild inflation.
Looking ahead, current disinflationary factors—falling rice prices, the abolition of the provisional petrol tax, and active subsidies—are expected to unwind within a year, raising the risk of renewed price pressure from 2027 onward. On the other side, a planned reduction in the food consumption tax rate to 1% from next April will introduce a new downward variable.
Takeaways
- The 692% annual yield on Turkish lira FX is a leveraged-margin artefact: the lira has already lost 97% of its 2007 value, and swap income has historically been no match for currency depreciation.
- NPB attendance reached a record 27.17 million in 2026—up 37% from 2005—driven by IT-sector ownership transforming club management and formats like the Climax Series sustaining late-season interest.
- The Bank of Japan's own inflation gauge has exceeded 2% for 23 straight months while the policy rate sits at 1.25%, meaning the negative real rate is quietly eroding the real value of Japan's government debt—an implicit 'inflation tax.'
This article is edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. It is not an official summary — please listen to the episode itself.