【ニュース小話 #236】ガザ、サウジアラビア…中東の流動化はどこまで進む

Monday: 'Non-competitive sports' become a trend in the United States

Data from the American Sports and Fitness Association show that participation in competitive sports is declining, with more high school clubs being disbanded. At the same time, events that prioritize experience and entertainment are on the rise. Formats that place no emphasis on times or rankings—such as The Color Run, where participants are showered in colored powder as they run, or cycling events through unpaved vineyard paths—are attracting large numbers of young people, particularly from Generation Z.

Shiono (塩野) noted that "competition causes roughly half of children to come to dislike sports," and observed that many people rediscover the joy of physical activity through rational motivation as adults. He evaluated the broadening of sports' appeal as a positive development overall.

Tuesday: One year after the Gaza ceasefire agreement—attacks continue, death toll exceeds 74,000

Three years have passed since Hamas's large-scale attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and one year since a ceasefire agreement was reached. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, the three-year death toll stood at 74,254 as of the 8th. Figures compiled by British humanitarian organization Islamic Relief show that at least 1,454 people were killed and more than 5,000 injured in the single year since the ceasefire agreement took effect. Israel continues to enforce strict border controls, and infrastructure reconstruction and the delivery of humanitarian aid remain stalled.

Israeli elections are scheduled for October 27. Former Chief of Staff Eisenkot is running as a centrist challenger against Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party. Shiono analyzed the situation, saying: "Prime Minister Netanyahu is said to have continued fighting partly for his own political survival, and if the prime minister changes, the direction of both the ceasefire and U.S.-Israel relations could shift dramatically."

Wednesday: Houthis strike Riyadh airport on consecutive days, Middle East destabilization accelerates

Yemen's Houthi rebel group attacked Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh's international airport with missiles. The October 10 strike killed at least 13 people and injured more than 300. Attacks continued on the 11th and 12th, and the airport was closed until at least October 17. The United Kingdom, the United States, and Japan all raised their travel warnings and danger levels. President Trump told reporters he was considering direct airstrikes against Yemen in response to American casualties.

Shiono explained that "the Middle East, which had maintained a balance, has entered a state of complete flux." He warned that if Gulf states such as Dubai are forced to pivot away from a luxury-focused economic model and ramp up defense spending, it would significantly impact the region's brand image. He also cautioned that if alternative shipping routes become unstable on top of the Strait of Hormuz, the blow to logistics and energy supply networks would be severe.

Thursday: IMF forecast projects Japan's GDP to fall to sixth in the world by 2027

The IMF's World Economic Outlook indicated that Japan's GDP, currently ranked fourth, is expected to drop to sixth place by 2027—next year. The primary causes are the historically weak yen and the strong growth of the United Kingdom and India, currently ranked fifth and sixth respectively. Global economic growth for 2026 was revised upward by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1% from the previous forecast, with an AI investment boom offsetting the drag from higher energy prices caused by Middle East tensions. However, the IMF's chief economist warned that "the resilience of the global economy is approaching its limits."

Shiono highlighted the risk of a financial shock if soaring power demand driven by the AI supply chain—rare earth minerals → chips → data centers → computing capacity—collides with an energy crisis. He also raised the scenario in which the emergence of low-cost Chinese AI models triggers a price war, making it difficult for companies to recoup their accumulated front-loaded investments.

Friday: One year of the Takaichi administration—signs of a reversal in the 'Takaichi trade'

Ahead of the first anniversary of the Takaichi administration on October 21, signs of a change are emerging in the "Takaichi trade"—the strategy of buying Japanese equities and selling government bonds. The 10-year government bond yield has nearly doubled over the past year to 3.115%, surpassing the TOPIX projected dividend yield of 2.3%. This gap is reportedly the largest since records began in 2005. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the combination of buying TOPIX and selling government bonds generated returns of more than 30% since October of last year, but JPMorgan Asset Management was reported to have closed its short bond position in September.

Prime Minister Takaichi herself has also adjusted her rhetoric, stating that "Japan's economy is not in a phase that requires reflationary policy" and that "the sustainability of public finances is a matter of course." Shiono flagged the risk that rising interest rates would push up corporate borrowing costs and trigger a reversal in stock prices. He also analyzed that rising variable interest rates are making Tokyo real estate harder to sell, with prices gradually softening. At the time of recording, the Nikkei Average had fallen more than 3,300 yen to the 65,000-yen level.