Podcast ClubCharts & Guide 日本語

Hot Entry! Latest guest: Rol3ert — He pretended to be American online. Now he's aiming for the US as himself.

上泉雄一のええなぁ! · News

石田英司「『物価高倒産』が過去最多ペース」「韓国で兵役免除の見直し論が再燃」「免許証の本人確認を『ICチップ』へ切り替え検討」10月14日

2026-10-13 · 45 min · 3 min read

Inflation-related bankruptcies in Japan totalled 762 cases in the first eight months of 2026, putting the annual figure on track to exceed 1,000 for the first time since records began in 2018. The episode also examines why a weak yen is no longer lifting Japanese exports, revisits the debate over South Korea's military exemption system, and explains why Japan's Financial Services Agency is pushing financial institutions to switch driver's license verification to IC chip reading ahead of schedule.

Listen to this episode Go to the show page

What this episode answers

  • What is the fundamental cause of the rapid increase in inflation-related bankruptcies?

    The core problem is the structural inability to pass rising costs — raw materials, labor, and transport — on to customers. Supermarkets cannot raise prices due to competition, construction firms cannot recover post-contract cost increases from clients, and subcontractors are routinely blocked from renegotiating with large prime contractors; companies survive through restructuring and asset sales until those options are exhausted.

  • Why aren't Japan's exports increasing despite the weak yen?

    Japan's major manufacturers already relocated factories overseas during earlier periods of dollar strength, so a weak yen does not increase exports from domestic plants. Profits earned by overseas subsidiaries are largely reinvested locally rather than remitted home, and even funds that are repatriated tend to flow into retained earnings or shareholder returns rather than domestic wages or consumption.

  • How does South Korea's military service system work?

    Service applies only to men; administrative procedures begin around age 18, with a physical examination at 19, and most men enlist between 20 and 21 during university. Active-duty length runs from 18 months in the Army to 21 months in the Air Force, followed by an 8-year reserve obligation; evaders face up to five years in prison, public disclosure of their name, and effective career disqualification.

  • Under what conditions does South Korea's military exemption apply, and are there still obligations after receiving it?

    The system, created in 1973, covers Olympic medalists and Asian Games gold medalists — including e-sports team members — as well as first-place finishers at government-designated arts competitions. Exemption is not complete: recipients must complete three weeks of basic training, then continue their sporting or artistic activities for 18 months while formally serving, and are also required to perform 544 hours of public-interest activities.

  • Why did Japan's Financial Services Agency ask for a faster switch to IC chip reading for driver's license verification?

    Unauthorized access to financial institution systems leaked customer data including driver's license images, heightening the risk of impersonation. Because a license number's first ten digits rarely change across reissues, a leaked image carries lasting risk, and the FSA moved up the previously planned April deadline to require institutions to act sooner.

Inflation-Related Bankruptcies on Track to Exceed 1,000 for the Year

Inflation-related bankruptcies in Japan reached 762 cases between January and August 2026, up 147 from the 615 recorded in the same period a year earlier. If the pace holds, the annual total will top 1,000 for the first time since Teikoku Databank began tracking the category in 2018.

An inflation-related bankruptcy occurs when a business can no longer absorb rising costs — raw materials, labor, transport — without passing them on to customers, and eventually runs out of room to maneuver. Supermarkets cannot simply raise shelf prices in the face of intense competition from rivals. Construction companies lock in contract prices at signing and have little leverage to recover cost overruns from clients once work is under way. Subcontractors are in an especially difficult position: large prime contractors routinely refuse to renegotiate, leaving smaller suppliers structurally unable to protect their margins.

Companies rarely collapse immediately. Most survive through successive rounds of restructuring and asset sales, but once those options run out, bankruptcy follows. The current surge suggests that firms that managed to hold on for several years are now reaching their limits, and further increases in the years ahead were flagged as a real possibility. One large supermarket chain's announcement of 100 store closures was also cited — an example of inflation compounding the impact of a shrinking local customer base.

A Weak Yen Isn't Boosting Exports

A Teikoku Databank survey found that 41.1% of large enterprises described the weaker yen's impact on their business as negative — exceeding, for the first time, the 40.6% of small and medium-sized enterprises who said the same. Large companies are budgeting at ¥152 to the dollar against an actual rate of ¥158, a gap of ¥6. Small and medium-sized enterprises are budgeting at ¥148, facing a ¥10 gap — meaning smaller businesses are absorbing a comparatively heavier blow.

The conventional assumption that a weak yen benefits export-oriented manufacturers no longer holds as cleanly as it once did. Japan's large manufacturers relocated production overseas during earlier periods of dollar strength, leaving limited domestic capacity to export from. Profits earned by overseas subsidiaries appear larger when converted to yen for consolidated reporting, but most of those gains are reinvested locally. Even funds that are remitted back to Japan tend to flow into retained earnings or shareholder returns rather than into domestic wages or household spending.

South Korea's Military Service System

Military service in South Korea applies only to men. Administrative procedures begin around age 18, with a physical examination at 19. Most men enlist between the ages of 20 and 21, typically during the first or second year of university. Active-duty length ranges from 18 months in the Army — the shortest — to 21 months in the Air Force. Because Army slots are the most numerous, the large majority of conscripts serve there. After completing active duty, veterans remain in the reserves for eight years and can be called up during that period.

Evading service carries a sentence of up to five years in prison and public disclosure of the offender's name. Because employers routinely verify military service dates during hiring, evasion amounts in practice to a career-ending decision. While the law allows service to be deferred until age 37, completing it while already in the workforce is effectively unrealistic. South Korea's job market is intensely competitive — university graduates wait an average of 11.2 months after graduation before finding employment — and the obligation to give up part of university life and the early career-preparation window weighs heavily.

South Korea's Military Exemption System in Practice

The exemption system dates to 1973. Olympic medalists — gold, silver, and bronze — and Asian Games gold medalists are eligible; 43 athletes qualified under the most recent Asian Games. Because e-sports is now a formal Asian Games discipline, members of a championship gaming team also qualify. In the arts, a first-place finish at a government-designated competition is sufficient.

The exemption is not, however, a complete release from service. Exempted individuals must complete three weeks of basic training, after which they continue their sporting or artistic careers for 18 months while formally serving. They must also complete 544 hours of public-interest activities such as coaching or skills instruction.

BTS fell outside the exemption system and all members served. With South Korea's young male population shrinking due to a falling birth rate, the manpower shortage is serious enough that outright abolition of the exemption system is considered unlikely.

Driver's License ID Verification Switching to IC Chip

Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) has asked financial institutions to move quickly from verifying customer identity using scanned or photographed driver's license images to reading data directly from the license's embedded IC chip. The push came after unauthorized access to financial institution systems led to leaks of customer data including license images, raising the risk of impersonation.

Japanese driver's license numbers are 12 digits, with the final two indicating how many times the license has been reissued. Because the first ten digits remain unchanged across reissues, a leaked image carries lasting risk. IC chips have been embedded in Japanese driver's licenses since 2007, meaning every currently valid license already contains one. Financial institutions had been given until April of next year to complete the transition, but the FSA is now asking them to act sooner. Reading the chip requires a four-digit and an eight-digit PIN set at the time of license renewal — and many holders, it was noted, have forgotten their eight-digit PIN.

Takeaways

  • Inflation-related bankruptcies hit 762 in January–August 2026, up 147 year-on-year and on pace to exceed 1,000 for the first time, driven by the structural inability of businesses — especially subcontractors and construction firms — to pass rising costs on to customers.
  • South Korea's military exemption system, covering Olympic medalists, Asian Games gold medalists, and e-sports champions, is not a full release from duty: recipients must still complete three weeks of basic training, 18 months of continued activity while serving, and 544 hours of public-interest work.
  • Japan's FSA has asked financial institutions to accelerate the switch from driver's license image verification to IC chip reading following a data breach, though the transition faces a practical hurdle: many license holders have forgotten the 8-digit PIN required to read their chip.

物価高倒産韓国兵役運転免許証円安インフレ

This article is edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. It is not an official summary — please listen to the episode itself.