須田慎一郎「どうなる？次の自民党総裁選！」10月1日

Takaichi's First Year — and the Next Race Has Already Begun

The LDP leadership election of October 4, 2025, made Takaichi Sanae party president, and the first anniversary of that vote is almost here. A party leader may serve up to three consecutive three-year terms, but because former President Ishiba Shigeru resigned before his term ended in September 2027, Takaichi inherited only the roughly two years remaining on Ishiba's clock. The next leadership election is therefore already baked in for autumn 2027, and according to economic journalist Suda Shinichiro, the behind-the-scenes maneuvering has already begun.

Hayashi Yoshimasa's Ground Game — What He Is Actually Doing

The first figure Suda zeroed in on is former Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa, widely seen as Takaichi's most formidable challenger. The cabinet reshuffle that removed Hayashi from government came with a revealing backstory. Takaichi had asked all lower-house members to submit a survey listing the posts they wanted, their reasons, and the policies they wished to pursue. Hayashi submitted a blank form. When asked why, he replied that personnel decisions were the sole prerogative of the party president and it was not his place to interfere — a response widely read inside the party as a deliberate provocation. The Takaichi camp reportedly decided on that basis to keep him out of the cabinet entirely.

Once out, Hayashi moved quickly. On September 5 he appeared as a special guest speaker at a meeting of the LDP's Kagoshima prefectural chapter, which is chaired by Secretary-General Moriyama Hiroshi — an appearance clearly aimed at locking in local delegate votes. On September 13 he was back on the road as a guest speaker at a national policy report meeting in Shikoku hosted by the Defense Minister. Suda was unequivocal: "These events are scheduled well in advance. He has clearly entered preparation mode for the leadership race." Reports also indicate that even while serving as Minister for Internal Affairs, Hayashi was quietly building his regional base through official business trips across the country.

Takaichi vs. the Hayashi Group — Three Policy Fault Lines

Three distinct policy divisions separate the Takaichi administration from the Hayashi group.

The first is fiscal policy. Against Takaichi's banner of "responsible expansionary fiscal policy," the lawmakers around Hayashi prioritise fiscal consolidation and hold the firm conviction that the consumption tax is an indispensable revenue source for pensions, nursing care, and healthcare — and that cutting it is out of the question.

The second is China policy. The Takaichi administration has maintained a firm, outspoken stance toward Beijing in the face of repeated violations of international law. Hayashi, by contrast, is seen as closer to a conciliatory line that values economic ties with China. Suda observed: "Given current public sentiment, voters would likely choose a tough-on-China government over a soft one."

The third is constitutional revision. Takaichi's medium-term goal is amending the constitution, while lawmakers opposed to or cautious about revision have congregated around Hayashi. Suda summed up the dynamic plainly: "The reality is that virtually everyone who disagrees with Takaichi's positions has ended up around Hayashi."

Reading the 2025 Numbers and the 2027 Path to Victory

In the first round of the 2025 leadership election, the parliamentary vote stood at Koizumi Shinjiro 80, Hayashi Yoshimasa 72, and Takaichi Sanae 64. At the time, more than half of the Kishida faction (former Kochikai) backed Hayashi, with a portion flowing to Koizumi.

For next year's race, Suda predicts Koizumi will not stand. The camp supporting Takaichi has been working to keep Koizumi on side, aiming for a smooth eventual power transition. If Kishida-faction votes coalesce behind Hayashi, the parliamentary tally could become very tight, Suda believes.

That said, Takaichi currently holds an overwhelming advantage. The LDP's landslide victory in the February 2026 lower-house election and persistently high cabinet approval ratings generate a powerful centripetal pull inside the party — the sense that "Takaichi built this stable foundation, so she should continue a while longer." Suda was candid: Hayashi "basically has no path" under present conditions. For Hayashi, this is likely his last realistic opportunity given his age, and Suda thinks he will run regardless of the odds — both to stake his place in history and because standing aside now would cede ground to a younger generation including Koizumi and Kobayashi.

Motegi's Low Profile and Next Year's Unified Local Elections

On Motegi Toshimitsu, once a name that surfaced almost every week, Suda was blunt: "He hasn't done anything interesting lately, so I've lost interest myself." The verdict is that his profile has dropped sharply compared with his time as secretary-general.

On next year's unified local elections, Suda said they are unlikely to have a direct impact on the leadership race, but added that if the LDP campaigns having delivered on its consumption-tax-cut pledge, it could cement an image as a party that keeps its word and puts people's livelihoods first — and could win comfortably against a fragmented opposition.