荻上チキ・Session～発信型ニュース・プロジェクト · News
【特集】超高齢社会にどう向き合えばいいのか？総人口の3割が65歳以上に（高野龍昭）
Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released its latest population estimates in September 2026, showing that people aged 65 and older now number 36.24 million and account for a record 29.6% of the total population. On the program, Tatsuroaki Takano (高野龍昭), professor of elderly welfare at Toyo University, joined host Chiki Ogiue (荻上チキ) to examine the structural challenges of a super-aged society — from why 65 became the defining threshold for 'elderly' to the precarious employment of working seniors and the long-term viability of long-term care insurance.
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What this episode answers
Why is age 65 used as the standard definition of 'elderly'?
There is no legal or medical rule for this; it traces back to a 1956 UN postwar survey that, for international comparability, defined 65+ as "elderly," 15-64 as "working-age," and 0-14 as "young," and that convention has simply continued.
Does a rising aging rate mean the elderly population is growing rapidly?
No; the 65-and-over population grew by only 20,000 this year, while the under-65 population fell by 620,000, so the rising aging rate is driven mainly by falling birthrates shrinking the younger population, not a surge in elderly people.
Is the increase in working seniors an unambiguously positive development?
No; while it helps sustain the economy and creates a virtuous cycle of knowledge transfer in fields like care work, about 76% of employed seniors are in non-regular employment and, with declining pensions, many must keep working regardless of health or preference, and workplace accidents such as falls, fractures, and heatstroke are rising.
How does the long-term care insurance system work, and what challenges does it face going forward?
It is funded equally by premiums from everyone aged 40+ and public tax funds, and replacing the old shame-inducing welfare model with an insurance framework sharply increased service use; going forward its central challenge is fiscal pressure, with proposals to cut premiums risking cuts to benefit levels that could cause local hospitals and care facilities to disappear.
Is lowering social insurance premiums truly in the interest of the working-age population?
No, according to Takano; cutting premiums would cut benefit levels, and today's workers could find that by the time they themselves are elderly, local hospitals and care facilities they'll need no longer exist, since such infrastructure cannot be rebuilt quickly once lost.
What the 29% figure actually means
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released its 2026 population estimates to coincide with Respect for the Elderly Day, showing 36.24 million people aged 65 or older — a record 29.6% of the total population. The number of employed seniors stands at 9.43 million, rising for the 22nd consecutive year, and now represents 13.8% of all workers, or more than one in seven.
Professor Takano is careful to frame this positively. "The more a society develops economically, the older its population becomes. The fact that the human wish to live longer has been realized to this extent is something to celebrate." Yet the rising aging rate is not primarily driven by a surge in elderly people. The 65-and-over population grew by just 20,000 this year — from 36.22 million to 36.24 million. Meanwhile, the under-65 population fell by 620,000, from 86.99 million to 86.37 million. As Takano put it, "That is roughly the entire population of Shimane Prefecture disappearing from the under-65 bracket in a single year" — a figure that makes clear it is falling birthrates, not a boom in elderly people, that is pushing the aging rate upward.
Where the age-65 threshold comes from
There is no legal or medical regulation that formally designates 65 as the boundary of old age. The benchmark traces back to 1956, when the United Nations conducted a postwar survey comparing population structures across countries and, for the sake of international comparability, defined those 65 and older as the "elderly" population, those aged 15 to 64 as the "working-age" population, and those aged 0 to 14 as the "young" population. That convention has simply been carried forward ever since.
Takano argues the rigidity of the cutoff is itself a problem. "Child development follows a relatively standard trajectory, but aging varies enormously between individuals. There are people who run full marathons past the age of 100, and people who develop early-onset dementia in their thirties. Drawing a single line by age is not really appropriate." Research in medicine and public health suggests that today's 65-year-olds are functionally 10 to 15 years younger — in terms of physical and cognitive capacity — than 65-year-olds were in the 1990s, and some academic societies have begun recommending that the threshold be raised to 75.
The light and shadow of working seniors
With 9.43 million employed seniors sustaining the economy as the working-age population shrinks, the picture can look encouraging. In care settings in particular, older workers are increasingly valued as support for professional staff, creating a virtuous cycle in which experience and knowledge are passed on to younger generations.
Yet Takano is quick to add a qualification. "I want us to become a society where not working is also a real option." Approximately 76% of employed seniors are in non-regular employment, and with pension levels declining, many have little choice but to keep working regardless of their health or preferences.
More troubling still is the rise in workplace accidents. Falls and fractures on the job, heatstroke during outdoor work — mismatches between the physical realities of aging and the demands of certain jobs are generating injuries. The sight of elderly workers directing traffic at construction sites in extreme heat or heavy rain has become a symbol of the problem.
Long-term care insurance: how it works and whether it can last
Japan's long-term care insurance system, launched in 2000, splits its funding equally between premiums paid by everyone aged 40 and older and public funds drawn from taxation. Before the system existed, elder care was delivered entirely through social welfare programs funded by the state, and many people hesitated to use those services out of a sense that accepting tax-funded help was shameful. The shift to a social insurance model changed the psychology: "It's insurance — I have a right to use it." As a result, the number of people actually using care services rose sharply, which Takano confirms from his own fieldwork.
The fiscal pressure is now the central challenge. Calls have emerged in political debates to reduce premium rates in order to increase take-home pay for working-age households. Takano is strongly cautionary about this direction. "Cutting premiums means cutting the level of benefits. If we reduce them now, by the time today's workers become elderly and need medical and care services, the local hospitals and care facilities may simply no longer exist. Once that infrastructure is gone, it cannot be rebuilt in five or ten years." The argument, in essence, is that trimming social insurance contributions to boost short-term disposable income risks dismantling the very foundations that the same generation will depend on in old age.
Takeaways
- The 65-and-over population grew by just 20,000 this year while the under-65 population fell by 620,000 — roughly the size of Shimane Prefecture — making falling birthrates, not an elderly boom, the primary driver of Japan's rising aging rate.
- Around 76% of employed seniors work in non-regular jobs, and a growing mismatch between aging bodies and job demands is fueling workplace accidents, meaning the rise in working seniors cannot simply be called a good thing.
- Cutting social insurance premiums lowers the level of care and medical benefits, and risks leaving today's working-age population without the regional healthcare and care infrastructure they will need when they grow old — infrastructure that, once dismantled, cannot be restored within a decade.
This article is edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. It is not an official summary — please listen to the episode itself.