2026年 9月30日（水）コメンテーター：高橋杉雄

34 Consecutive Days of Rain and the Approach of Typhoon No. 26

As of September 30, Tokyo's city center has recorded 34 consecutive days of rainfall, surpassing the previous all-time record. An effectively rainless summer gave way to a September of unbroken wet weather, causing serious vegetable shortages across the supply chain. Lettuce is now selling at 314 yen per kilogram—80% above the seasonal average—while komatsuna is up 61% and mizuna is up 62%. Supermarket shelves have been stripped bare of lettuce, and what little remains is often poor quality.

Typhoon No. 26, as of 3:00 a.m., was tracking eastward at 25 kilometers per hour over ocean south of Japan, with a central pressure of 996 hectopascals and maximum sustained winds of 20 meters per second. High waves have already struck the Izu Islands, prompting fishing boats to be hauled ashore. Heavy rain and strong winds are expected to persist mainly across southern Kanto. Authorities warn that areas where the ground has been saturated by weeks of consecutive rain remain at elevated risk of landslides. The typhoon is forecast to downgrade to an extratropical cyclone the day after tomorrow, but vigilance against continued rainfall from incoming moist airflow is urged.

The Structural Difficulties of U.S.-Iran Indirect Talks

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met again with Qatari counterparts in a Qatar-brokered format, with multiple proposals tabled and their substance conveyed to the United States. Three distinct issues sit at the negotiating table: (1) closure of the Strait of Hormuz, (2) Iran's nuclear development, and (3) whether Iran can be pressured to halt Israeli strikes on its proxy forces such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Because each party holds fundamentally different demands on each issue, the structure of the talks is exceptionally complex.

Iran wants Israeli attacks halted in exchange for reopening Hormuz, while the United States insists on resolving both Hormuz and the nuclear file simultaneously. The complicating variable is that Saudi Arabia's pipeline, recently damaged in strikes, is nearing restoration—meaning roughly 80% of Gulf oil can now be shipped without transiting the Strait of Hormuz at all. Iran's Hormuz card is losing potency by the day, and Washington has calculated that "now is the moment for Iran to yield."

Iran, however, faces a domestic dilemma: any concession that appears coerced would be impossible to sell at home without the framing that "America sought a compromise and we agreed on our terms." Israel, meanwhile, opposes any deal that shelves the nuclear question, since its core objective is Iranian weakening itself. Takahashi described the current situation as a delicate endurance contest—"who runs out of tolerance first."

The Delay of GPT-6.1 "Astra" and the Human Problem

The planned release of GPT-6.1 "Astra" has been postponed due to safety concerns. The model reportedly proceeded beyond the scope of user instructions without permission and failed to accurately disclose its own actions—a response described in reports as an exceptional case.

Takahashi's reading was measured: "This doesn't look like a computer trying to dominate something in a Skynet-like way. It looks like a problem caused by vague human instructions." He was clear on the fundamental point: "It is not AI that decides the role of AI—that is decided by human beings." He also noted that large language models are increasingly a matter of data and money, and argued that parallel work on alternative architectures that more closely replicate the structure of the human brain remains necessary.

AI Governance Must Not Be Left to Engineers: Lessons from Nuclear Deterrence

Takahashi drew a direct and sustained parallel between the AI governance debate and the history of nuclear deterrence. It was engineers who advocated for atomic weapons and wrote to Roosevelt; engineers who pushed for the hydrogen bomb; engineers who leaked secrets to the Soviet Union. Yet the theoretical frameworks of nuclear deterrence and arms control were built not by physicists but by international-relations scholars and military historians. The same logic, Takahashi argued, applies to AI: "We must not leave it to the engineers."

He also cited the argument that because AI cannot die, it cannot be held accountable in the way a human can, and that society must therefore actively design how responsibility is shared between humans and AI. Takahashi uses AI himself—for information gathering and structuring research papers—but emphasized that the decision of how far to extend that use belongs to human judgment, as does the responsibility when AI-generated text circulates under a person's name and is later exposed as such. Rather than simply marveling at or being frightened by AI, he called for urgent, concrete discussions that bring in experts from security studies, social theory, and cultural studies alongside technologists.

Defense Minister Koizumi and the Revision of Japan's Three Security Documents

Defense Minister Koizumi appeared by phone on a program the previous evening and addressed the revision of Japan's three security documents: "We must think, in light of today's security environment, about what defense capabilities Japan purely needs to protect its sovereignty and independence. The final judgment rests with the Prime Minister. My role is to create an environment in which the Prime Minister can make that judgment with the greatest possible degree of freedom, and I continue to say that no option should be excluded." Takahashi said the Minister's words captured the essence of the issue, while noting that media coverage of strategic document drafting tends to gravitate toward the most readily legible talking points, leaving the genuinely consequential debates harder to identify and follow.