2026年10月2日（金）コメンテーター：飯田泰之

Job Hunting's Long March—Ice-Age Habits Linger in a Seller's Market

The job offer rate for the class of 2026 stood at 85.6% as of end-August—a striking contrast to the 60.2% recorded when Iida Yasuyuki himself entered the workforce in 2003. Hiring conditions have improved consistently since 2014, yet even as a seller's market has become entrenched, the prolonged job-hunting cycle that took shape during the employment ice age lives on. Internships and job-search preparations begin as early as the first half of third year at university, effectively hijacking what should be the serious seminar work of the second half of third year.

Iida singled out the October 1 offer ceremony, pointing out that scheduling a formal corporate event on a weekday is tantamount to telling students to skip class. He also argued that in an era when changing jobs has become commonplace, the disproportionate energy both companies and students pour into new-graduate hiring is inefficient for both sides. With AI adoption likely to reshape the skills demanded three years from now in hard-to-predict ways, he called for a fundamental rethink of how recruitment is structured.

September Bank of Japan Tankan—Six Straight Quarters of Improvement, but Price Outlook Softens

The Bank of Japan's September Tankan (全国企業短期経済観測調査), released on October 1, showed the large-manufacturer business conditions diffusion index (DI) at +24, up 2 points from the June survey and marking six consecutive quarters of improvement. The DI subtracts the share of firms reporting "poor" conditions from those reporting "good," so a positive reading indicates that optimism is in the majority.

Iida explained that the Tankan's main appeal is its timeliness: questionnaires are collected over two weeks in late September and results are published on October 1, giving policymakers and markets an unusually fast read on economic conditions—which is also why international financial markets follow it closely. The forward-looking outlook once again predicted deterioration, yet actual outcomes have beaten those expectations for several quarters in a row. A particularly notable detail: corporate price expectations for the coming year have gradually slipped to 2.5%, a trend Iida read as evidence that firms' inflation expectations are settling down.

Rising Mortgage Rates and the Demographic Headwind

Variable mortgage rates have climbed into the 1% range, while the Flat 35 fixed rate has approached 3.8%. Iida described a 35-year fixed rate near 4% as "shocking," but argued that the primary driver of falling mortgage applications is demographics, not rates. The baby-boom-junior generation (born in the early 1970s and now in their early 50s) is beginning to age out of the home-buying cohort. Once a borrower exceeds 60, a 35-year mortgage is effectively off the table—income cannot be guaranteed 35 years into the future. This structural decline in demand, compounded by rising rates, is producing early signs of a ceiling on used-condominium prices. Iida added that prices in central urban areas have become too high in their own right, acting as a further suppressor of demand.

Houthis, the Strait of Hormuz, and Oil Risk

Morning newspapers flagged escalating tension in the Red Sea shipping corridor, where Houthi forces have demonstrated stronger-than-expected military capability. Saudi Arabian oil exports flow primarily through the Strait of Hormuz, with the Red Sea offering an alternative route—and that alternative is now showing signs of instability.

Iida explained that Japanese companies have a structurally low cost-pass-through rate: rather than raising prices to customers when input costs rise, they tend to absorb the difference in corporate profits. This means employment and consumer prices remain relatively stable while corporate earnings swing more widely—and therefore higher oil prices do not translate directly or immediately into domestic inflation.

Skepticism About the Case for Bank of Japan Rate Hikes

The summary of opinions from the September monetary policy meeting was published, showing that while the majority of members leaned toward a rate hike, two voted against. Iida criticized media coverage for being uniformly pro-hike. With corporate price expectations moderating to 2.5% and the economy entering a phase when aggressive investment in AI and capital equipment is urgently needed, he argued the justification for raising rates is thin. Reviewing the trajectory of hikes since Governor Ueda took office, he questioned why the press seems particularly energetic in its advocacy of rate increases.

The U.S. September employment report was scheduled for release that same evening, with dollar-yen trading around ¥158. Analysts noted that because the Fed remains focused on inflation, a strong jobs number was unlikely to stoke expectations of a steep October rate cut.