# 【金子勝】2026年10月23日 フランス財政危機と高市政権の危うさ

- Show: 大竹紳士交遊録 - 大竹まことゴールデンラジオ！
- Published: 2026-10-23
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/254180252_cb47074e7be2.html
- Audio: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/NCB4505336833.mp3
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

With Japan's September core consumer price index — stripping out energy and fresh food — rising 2.4%, economist Kaneko Masaru (金子勝) used France's widening fiscal crisis and street protests as a mirror for Prime Minister Takaichi's debt-fueled spending agenda, warning it risks replicating the 45-day collapse of the Truss government in 2022. Unfunded outlays of ¥5 trillion for food tax cuts, ¥12 trillion for growth investment, and a record ¥8.9 trillion defense budget request are converging with the year-end expiry of gasoline subsidies, escalating Middle East oil risk, and mounting US demands on Tokyo — a triple threat Kaneko laid out in detail on Otake Makoto Golden Radio (大竹まことゴールデンラジオ！).

## What this episode answers

### Why did Japan's consumer prices exceed 2% even with gasoline subsidies in place?

The ¥50-per-liter subsidy artificially suppressed energy costs, but food and daily necessities — which the subsidy does not cover — still rose more than 2%, with further pressure coming from Uniqlo price hikes, doubled museum admission fees, and higher smartphone data charges.

### Why are French bond yields surging toward 5% and protests spreading across the country?

Investment funds now hold roughly half of all outstanding French sovereign bonds and can sell forward in futures markets; France's ¥156 trillion in bond rollovers over ten years, combined with large-scale spending promises from both far-right Le Pen and left-wing populist Mélenchon, gave markets the trigger to drive yields close to 5%.

### How does the collapse of the UK Truss government apply to the Takaichi administration?

The Truss government announced an ¥8 trillion tax cut in September 2022 and collapsed within 45 days as the pound and gilts crashed; Kaneko argues the Takaichi government is equally exposed, having piled up ¥5 trillion, ¥12 trillion, and ¥8.9 trillion in unfunded commitments while Japan's sovereign credit rating has already fallen to single-A.

### What will happen to Japanese prices once the gasoline subsidies end by year-end?

The subsidy phases down to a ¥35-per-liter cap in October, ¥30 in November, and ¥25 in December before ending entirely, exhausting the ¥1.9 trillion in deficit-bond financing behind it; if Middle East conflict disrupts oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz or the Yemeni straits, the resulting crude shock could push inflation sharply higher.

### What demands might the Trump administration make on Japan after the midterm elections?

Even if Republicans lose both chambers in the midterms, Trump can govern foreign and defense policy by executive order, and with Europe and Canada pulling away from Washington, Kaneko expects him to press Japan harder for higher host-nation support costs and expanded US-directed investment — demands the Takaichi government will find structurally difficult to refuse.

## Article

## The Inflation Hidden by Subsidies

September's headline consumer price index came in at 2.1%, while the core index — excluding energy and fresh food — rose 2.4%. The figures arrived despite a ¥50-per-liter gasoline subsidy that has been actively suppressing pump prices and, through them, the headline number. Food and everyday goods still climbed more than 2%, revealing how broad-based underlying cost pressures have become. Kaneko cited Uniqlo price increases, museum admission fees that have doubled, and rising smartphone data charges as examples of a creeping expansion in the cost of living that is set to widen further. "The gasoline subsidy is going to run out," he warned. "When it does, stockpiles will fall and conditions will get severe."

## France's Fiscal Crisis and the Bond Collapse Blueprint

Street protests — led by high-school students and labor unions — are spreading across France, and the cause is a fiscal impasse at the heart of the French state. France faces ¥156 trillion in sovereign bond rollovers over the next decade, while far-right Marine Le Pen and left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon are bidding against each other with large-scale spending promises. Financial markets have responded by targeting French government debt, pushing yields close to 5%.

The structural cause is the excess liquidity created by the massive monetary easing of the COVID era. Banks and life insurance companies, which once held government bonds in bulk as a safe-asset staple, have been steadily replaced by investment funds that now own roughly half of outstanding sovereign debt. Basel regulations — the BIS rules — accelerated this shift after the Greek and Italian crises by requiring bonds to be treated as risk assets rather than risk-free holdings. Investment funds are far more sensitive to profit and loss than traditional institutional holders, and they can sell forward in futures markets. Once confidence cracks, bonds and currency fall in a self-reinforcing spiral.

The clearest precedent is the United Kingdom in September 2022. Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled an ¥8 trillion tax-cut package, the pound and gilts crashed almost immediately, and the government lasted just 45 days.

## The Takaichi Government's Stimulus Without Funding

Kaneko sees the Takaichi (高市) administration following the same trajectory. A reduced tax rate — effectively zero — on food items carries a price tag of ¥5 trillion. Growth investment totals ¥12 trillion. Defense spending hit a record-high budget request of ¥8.9 trillion. None of these outlays come with an identified funding source. Japan's sovereign credit rating has already declined to single-A; a further fall to a B rating would reclassify Japanese debt as non-investment grade and trigger a sudden surge in selling pressure.

The government's options for defending the yen are also narrowing. The conventional move — selling US Treasuries held in the Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account to buy yen — is compromised because US Treasury prices are already in a falling phase; selling into that market would compound the damage rather than contain it. "The collective [of available tools] is disappearing," Kaneko said.

## Gasoline Subsidy Phase-Out and the Middle East Risk Chain

The gasoline subsidy is being wound down in stages: a ¥35-per-liter cap in October, ¥30 in November, ¥25 in December, ending entirely before the year is out. The ¥1.9 trillion in deficit-bond financing behind it will be exhausted at the same time, and electricity and gas subsidies have already been terminated. The timing compounds a dangerous external variable: war around Iran continues, and shipping risks are rising not only in the Strait of Hormuz but also in the Yemeni straits, where Houthi forces are engaged in combat with Saudi Arabia. A large-scale attack on either chokepoint could cause a sudden, sharp drop in crude supply and drive a second wave of inflation on top of the domestic pressures already building.

## The Trump Administration and Fraying US-Japan Diplomacy

The possibility of Republicans losing both chambers in the US midterm elections cannot be dismissed — Trump's approval rating has fallen to 31%. Even with a divided Congress, Trump retains broad authority to set foreign and defense policy through executive orders. With Europe and Canada both pulling away from Washington, Kaneko expects the Trump administration to intensify pressure specifically on Japan: higher contributions to the cost of stationing US forces, and additional investment directed toward the United States. The Takaichi government has already pledged ¥80 trillion in US-bound investment, with SoftBank and Oracle among the participants in the Stargate AI and data center initiative.

The diplomatic ledger is also deteriorating. Former Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs Tanaka Hitoshi (田中均) has said the administration lacks "the qualifications to conduct diplomacy," citing a succession of missteps that includes Japan's absence from a G7 emergency summit. Kaneko's closing assessment was bleak: "Because the Cabinet Bureau of Personnel Affairs has the bureaucracy by the scruff of the neck, officials can no longer say what needs to be said. There is a very high probability that they will charge forward in a banzai rush with no one to stop them."

## Takeaways

- Despite a massive ¥50-per-liter gasoline subsidy, Japan's core CPI rose 2.4% in September, and the staged phase-out of that subsidy by year-end — on top of already-terminated electricity and gas support — points to a further, unavoidable rise in living costs.
- France's bond yields surging toward 5% and the 45-day Truss government collapse are concrete precedents for the market punishment that can follow unfunded fiscal expansion, and Kaneko argues the Takaichi government's ¥5-trillion, ¥12-trillion, and ¥8.9-trillion commitments leave Japan equally exposed given its single-A credit rating.
- With yen-defense tools constrained, bureaucrats silenced by the Cabinet Bureau of Personnel Affairs, Middle East supply risks building, and US demands set to intensify, Kaneko warns the Takaichi government could stumble into a compounding fiscal and currency crisis with no internal check capable of stopping it.