# 106万円の壁よりも注意？そびえ立つ●●万円の壁？

- Show: 経済ニュース　今日の気になる話題
- Published: 2026-10-17
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1775130625_ac59842f94ae.html
- Audio: https://anchor.fm/s/f814433c/podcast/play/127611507/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-9-17%2F351837fd-dd32-7416-283a-6508db6e453b.mp3
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

Honda's stock has rebounded to 92% of its all-time high on the back of a dramatic EV strategy reversal and a willingness to cut sunk costs. JR Tokai has announced the next-generation S0-series Shinkansen, set to debut in July 2029 alongside a fare increase starting in 2027. Meanwhile, the so-called "¥1.06 million wall" for social insurance eligibility was abolished in October, but the change is largely cosmetic — what really matters is understanding the structural impact of the "¥1.3 million wall."

## What this episode answers

### Why is Honda's stock approaching its all-time high?

Honda booked up to ¥2.5 trillion in EV-related losses and posted its first-ever net loss, then pivoted back to hybrids — the market rewarded that decisive retreat, lifting Honda's shares more than 20% from early June while the Nikkei stayed flat, making it the top performer among major automakers.

### When facing a sunk cost, how should you decide whether to cut your losses or keep going?

Cutting losses is not always right: Edison kept changing his materials until he succeeded, and the researcher who persisted with blue LED research from the 1980s won the 2014 Nobel Prize in Physics; the key criteria are (1) whether you are changing your method along the way and (2) whether results, however small, are trending upward.

### When does the new S0-series Shinkansen debut, and what is changing?

JR Tokai announced on October 16, 2026 that the S0-series will debut in July 2029 — the first full model change since the N700S — featuring autonomous driving, faster earthquake-triggered braking, in-seat smartphone and cup holders in Green Cars, mid-car partitions, and nine luggage areas (up from six); reserved-seat fares on Nozomi services between Tokyo and Shin-Osaka rise ¥700 to ¥15,420 from July 2027 sales, and Green Car fares rise ¥3,700 to ¥23,290 from December 27, 2027 travel dates.

### What actually changed when the ¥1.06 million wall was abolished?

The ¥88,000-per-month (≈¥1.06 million per year) wage threshold for social-insurance enrollment was removed, but because the minimum wage already exceeds ¥1,016/hour in every prefecture, anyone working 20 hours a week was already crossing that line automatically, so the abolition changes nothing in practice.

### If you earn ¥1.4 million — ¥100,000 above the ¥1.3 million wall — how does your take-home pay differ depending on whether you join a company health/pension plan or pay national pension and national health insurance yourself?

At ¥1.4 million annual income, enrolling in a company plan (employer covers half the premium) leaves a take-home of about ¥1.17 million (roughly ¥130,000 in employee pension plus ¥70,000 in health insurance); paying national pension and national health insurance yourself costs about ¥310,000 in total premiums, leaving a take-home of about ¥1.07 million — a gap of roughly ¥100,000, plus the company plan boosts future pension payouts.

## Article

## Honda Stock Nears All-Time High — EV Exit and the Sunk-Cost Lesson

As of October 2026, Honda's share price has climbed to ¥1,797.5, reaching 92% of its all-time high of ¥1,959 set in March 2024. That compares favorably with Toyota at 77% and Subaru at 51% of their respective peaks, making Honda the strongest performer among major automakers. While the Nikkei 225 has barely moved since early June, Honda has gained more than 20%.

The road there was rocky. In April 2021 Honda pledged to phase out gasoline-only vehicles by 2040. By May 2024 it had announced ¥10 trillion in EV and software investment and an aggressive 2030 EV sales target. Then the EV market stalled. By May 2025 Honda trimmed the investment plan to ¥7 trillion, and in March 2026 it booked up to ¥2.5 trillion in related losses and announced its first-ever net loss. The 2040 EV/FCV 100% target was withdrawn, and surplus capital was redirected to hybrids.

Viewed through the lens of sunk costs, this looks rational — far better than the "Concorde effect" trap of pouring money into a losing bet. But the instructor cautions that cutting losses is not automatically the right call. Edison kept swapping materials until he perfected the incandescent bulb. A researcher who started working on blue LEDs in the 1980s won the 2014 Nobel Prize in Physics — and notably, one of the developers sued over a bonus of a few tens of thousands of yen; the first-instance court awarded ¥20 billion. The real decision criteria are: (1) Are you changing your method along the way? (2) Are results, however modest, on an upward trend?

Honda's ability to take the hit rests on two pillars. Its motorcycle division earns an operating margin of roughly 20% — far above the roughly 5% margin on cars — providing meaningful diversification. And Honda has entered and exited Formula 1 four or five times since the 1960s (winning 15 of 16 races in the 1988 McLaren-Honda season), giving it institutional practice at walking away. That said, electric two-wheelers are gaining ground in Southeast Asia, so the motorcycle business is not without its own long-term risks.

## The S0-Series Shinkansen — July 2029 Debut and a Fare Increase

On October 16, 2026, JR Tokai announced the S0-series, the first full model change on the Tokaido/Sanyo Shinkansen since the N700S entered service in 2020. The designation "S" stands for Shinkansen and Supreme; "0" marks a new starting point. Revenue service is scheduled for July 2029.

Key upgrades include an autonomous driving system, faster train-stop activation when an earthquake is detected, and 20% use of recycled aluminum. Green Car seats will have separate smartphone and cup holders on the armrest, and selected cars will feature a center partition between the 2×2 seating rows. Luggage areas increase from six to nine.

Fares are also rising. Reserved-seat surcharges on Nozomi and Mizuho services will increase from July 2027 sales onward — Tokyo to Shin-Osaka goes up ¥700 to ¥15,420, the first hike on Nozomi fares (excluding consumption-tax increases) since the service launched. Green Car fares rise ¥3,700 to ¥23,290 for travel from December 25, 2027. Private-compartment and premium services are expected to cost roughly ¥7,000 more for a round trip.

## The ¥1.06 Million Wall Is Gone — But Watch the ¥1.3 Million Wall

From October 2026, the ¥88,000-per-month (≈¥1.06 million annualized) wage threshold for mandatory social-insurance enrollment has been abolished. In reality, this changes almost nothing. Reaching that figure requires a minimum hourly wage of ¥1,016 while working 20 hours a week — and as of March 2026, every prefecture's minimum wage already exceeds that level. The two remaining enrollment conditions are: working for a firm with 51 or more employees, and working at least 20 hours per week.

The threshold that actually matters is the ¥1.3 million wall. Set in the early 1990s when the average hourly wage was in the ¥600s, it originally required about 2,100 hours of work per year (40 hours a week) to reach. With the national average hourly wage now at ¥1,177, the same ¥1.3 million is reachable in about 1,100 hours a year — roughly 21 hours a week. The wall is easier to hit than ever, and crossing it removes a dependent from the family plan, triggering social-insurance premiums.

What happens next depends on where you work. If your employer's social-insurance plan covers you (company pays half the premium), a ¥1.4 million salary costs you about ¥130,000 in employee pension and ¥70,000 in health insurance — roughly ¥200,000 total — leaving a take-home of about ¥1.17 million. If you must enroll in national pension (kokumin nenkin) and national health insurance (kokuho) yourself, the same ¥1.4 million salary costs about ¥210,000 in national pension and ¥100,000 in national health insurance — roughly ¥310,000 total — leaving a take-home of about ¥1.07 million. The gap is about ¥100,000, and the company plan also grows your future pension payout. Workers at firms with 50 or fewer employees cannot join a company plan even above ¥1.3 million, so they automatically fall into the costlier option.

The instructor's conclusion: rather than capping earnings at ¥1.29 million, aiming boldly for ¥2 million or ¥3 million is the more rational move. Constraining your working hours to avoid a ¥10,000–¥20,000 difference in take-home pay makes little sense, and the transitional relief measures introduced during the Kishida administration remain underused.

## Takeaways

- Honda's stock is the top performer among major automakers after it booked up to ¥2.5 trillion in EV losses, posted its first net loss, and pivoted to hybrids — a decisive retreat underpinned by a high-margin motorcycle business and decades of F1 entry-and-exit experience.
- The new S0-series Shinkansen debuts in July 2029 with autonomous driving and upgraded Green Car amenities, accompanied by the first Nozomi reserved-seat fare increase (ex-tax) since launch: Tokyo–Shin-Osaka rises ¥700 to ¥15,420 from July 2027, and Green Car fares rise ¥3,700 to ¥23,290 from December 2027.
- The ¥1.06 million social-insurance wall abolition is effectively cosmetic; the real threshold to watch is the ¥1.3 million wall, where crossing it while working for a small firm (≤50 employees) forces you onto national pension and national health insurance — costing roughly ¥100,000 more per year than a company plan at the same income.