# PER10倍で売り、同50倍で買え！？伝説のファンドマネージャが語る！

- Show: 経済ニュース　今日の気になる話題
- Published: 2026-10-21
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1775130625_3300be0d3e79.html
- Audio: https://anchor.fm/s/f814433c/podcast/play/127819478/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-9-21%2F490d64ea-40d7-7eaa-b2b0-e8bd2997db3c.mp3
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

Chinese small- and mid-cap AI stocks have tumbled roughly 40% from their June 2026 peak in the wake of a US AI selloff, while Hong Kong's IPO market is flashing warning signs that echo the period just before the dot-com crash. Japanese companies are meanwhile turning to non-statutory perks—company housing steps from major train stations and fully subsidized meals—to compete for talent without lifting base pay. The episode also unpacks Peter Lynch's counterintuitive rule for cyclical stocks: sell when the P/E is low, buy when it's high.

## What this episode answers

### What is driving the slump in Chinese AI stocks and the slowdown in Hong Kong's IPO market?

US AI stock weakness spread to China's small- and mid-cap AI index, which fell about 40% from its June 2026 high. Despite a 60% year-on-year surge in Hong Kong IPO fundraising to roughly ¥14 trillion for January–September, 9 of the 14 companies that listed from September onward closed below their offer price on day one—a pattern that mirrors the period just before the dot-com bust.

### How does China's subsidy-and-overcrowding industrial strategy compare with Japan's own industrial history?

China intentionally funnels tens of trillions of yen in state-fund subsidies into target industries, flooding them with 100–200 competitors so that a handful of survivors eventually dominate globally—the same path Japan walked in motorcycles, calculators, and audio equipment.

### Why do companies choose housing allowances and meal subsidies over higher salaries?

The economics are lopsided in the employee's favor: free meals cost the company roughly ¥10,000 per employee per month but save the employee about ¥50,000 in foregone dining expenses, and company housing and meal subsidies also reduce corporate tax while strengthening recruitment and retention.

### Why are non-statutory benefits the first to be cut when business deteriorates?

Unlike salaries—which are practically impossible to cut once raised under labor contracts—non-statutory benefits can be eliminated by management decision with relative ease; after Japan's bubble burst, brokerage firms cut housing subsidies and dinner allowances worth about ¥20,000 a month for division managers before resorting to layoffs.

### Why did Peter Lynch say to sell cyclical stocks when their P/E is low and buy when it's high?

When a cyclical stock's P/E is low, earnings per share are near their peak, signaling that the commodity cycle is close to topping out and it is time to sell; conversely, a high P/E caused by depressed earnings signals a cycle bottom and an impending profit recovery—Kioxia and INPEX are cited as textbook examples.

## Article

## Chinese AI Stocks Plunge — Storm Clouds Over Hong Kong's IPO Market

The ripple effects of a US AI stock selloff have hit China's small- and mid-cap AI index hard, sending it down roughly 40% from its June 2026 peak. Among the hardest-hit names: Cambricon (寒武紀), the semiconductor designer dubbed "China's NVIDIA"; EOPTOLINK, a maker of optical-communication components for data centers; and CXMT, a memory chipmaker sometimes called "China's Micron." CXMT's parent company had only just completed an IPO in July, yet the stock has already fallen about 30% from its high, relinquishing its position as the market's largest company by capitalization.

Hong Kong's IPO fundraising for January through September reached roughly ¥14 trillion, up 60% year on year and already surpassing the full-year figure for 2025. Yet 9 of the 14 companies that listed from September onward closed below their offer price on day one. One major deal that debuted in Hong Kong on July 30 attracted retail subscription demand of more than 16 times, yet still fell 5% on its opening day. Commentators noted that the pattern closely resembles the period just before the dot-com bust, when first-day breaks below offer price began to multiply.

## Subsidies, Overcrowding, Survival — China's Industrial Playbook and Japan's Historical Precedent

The Chinese government channels tens of trillions of yen through state funds into industries it wants to develop, deliberately flooding those sectors with 100 to 200 competitors to create cutthroat rivalry. The EV industry is the live example today: a handful of survivors are now threatening to dominate global markets.

Japan walked the same path. After World War II, hundreds of motorcycle makers competed; Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries survived. Calculators consolidated from dozens of rivals down to Sharp and Casio. The audio equipment market once crowded with Sansui, Pioneer, Trio (later Kenwood), and the hi-fi divisions of Panasonic (Technics), Mitsubishi Electric (Diatone), and Sony has essentially vanished—accelerated by smartphones displacing dedicated hardware.

On China's AI sector, some Western countries have begun imposing usage restrictions. China is attempting to sidestep those rules by releasing model source code openly—a "publish the recipe" approach—but concerns persist that the models embed Chinese Communist Party intent. Among Japanese semiconductor-equipment makers, Tokyo Electron and Screen Holdings each derive roughly one-third of their revenue from China, and Disco is similarly exposed at around 30%.

## Company Housing and Free Meals — The Economics of Non-Statutory Benefits

At IT company Isaac (アイザック), three employees share a company dormitory a five-minute walk from Ebisu Station, where monthly rent is ¥250,000. The company covers more than half the cost, leaving each employee a self-paid share of about ¥33,000 a month—roughly one-fifth of market rent. The operator of LINE Manga covers all three daily meals—breakfast, lunch, and dinner—in full. The company's cost works out to roughly ¥10,000 per employee per month (¥500 per meal × 20 working days), but if employees ate out instead they would spend about ¥2,400 a day × 20 days ≈ ¥50,000, making the employee's savings far exceed the employer's outlay.

A tax caveat applies: if the company covers more than half the imputed rental value under tax rules, the housing benefit is treated as wages in kind. In the three-person arrangement described, roughly ¥40,000 per employee per month could be deemed salary. Companies do, however, receive a corporate-tax deduction on the expense.

The critical structural difference is that once a salary is raised, labor contract law makes it practically impossible to cut again. Non-statutory benefits can be eliminated by management decision with relative ease. After Japan's bubble burst, brokerage firms reduced housing subsidies and dinner allowances—worth about ¥20,000 a month—for division-manager-level staff before moving to pay cuts or layoffs.

## Is a Low P/E Really Cheap? Peter Lynch's Counterintuitive Rule for Cyclical Stocks

The Nikkei Average trades at an average P/E of around 17x; during the bubble era it reached 70–80x. Introductory investing guides teach that a low P/E means a cheap stock, but it is common for low-P/E stocks to fall further while high-P/E stocks rise.

Peter Lynch, who managed the Magellan Fund, argued the opposite for cyclical stocks: sell when the P/E is low, buy when it's high. A low P/E in a cyclical name means earnings per share are near their peak—a signal that the commodity cycle is topping out and it is time to sell. Conversely, a high P/E caused by collapsed EPS signals a cycle bottom and an impending profit recovery—time to buy. Classic examples cited are Kioxia, whose share price tracks NAND memory prices, and INPEX (formerly Teikoku Oil), which rises even when broader markets fall during oil-price surges. The episode closes with a reminder that finding an ultra-low-P/E stock in a screening app is only the first step: always ask why it is cheap before acting.

## Takeaways

- China's small- and mid-cap AI index has fallen ~40% from its June 2026 peak, and Hong Kong's IPO market is showing dot-com-era warning signs as 9 of 14 recent listings closed below offer price on day one.
- Non-statutory benefits such as company housing and free meals deliver outsized value to employees at relatively low cost to employers, but they are structurally the first line item cut when earnings deteriorate.
- Peter Lynch's sell-low-P/E, buy-high-P/E rule for cyclical stocks reflects the fact that a depressed P/E in a cyclical name signals peak earnings—not undervaluation—making it a sell signal rather than a bargain.