# 2000万人対象、年平均3万円給付案が浮上？来年度から2年間！

- Show: 経済ニュース　今日の気になる話題
- Published: 2026-10-18
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1775130625_2233b32154ce.html
- Audio: https://anchor.fm/s/f814433c/podcast/play/127655721/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-9-18%2Fee347810-b8bc-0ccc-e388-63f75f8afdf3.mp3
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

Golf club memberships in Japan have climbed to their highest prices in roughly 17 years, with mid-range memberships in the ¥3–5 million bracket rising 1.5 to 2 times in value in some regions. A deputy mayor died after being crushed by a 3-ton taiko-dai festival float during the Saijo Festival (西条祭り) in Ehime Prefecture on October 17, 2026. The government has also revealed a proposal to pay an average of ¥30,000 per year to approximately 20 million low-to-middle-income workers over fiscal years 2027 and 2028.

## What this episode answers

### Why are golf club membership prices rising now, and how does this differ from the bubble era?

The post-COVID revival of golf is driving prices up, but unlike the bubble era—when speculative money pushed memberships above ¥100 million—today's buyers are enthusiasts who want to play; mid-range memberships (¥3–5 million) are up 1.5 to 2 times in areas such as greater Tokyo, Kanagawa, Fukuoka, and Okinawa, while Tohoku prefectures like Iwate, Akita, and Yamagata have seen declines.

### How do golf club memberships work, and what do they have in common with the stock market?

Golf club memberships trade 'priority play rights' on a secondary market where proceeds go to the seller rather than the club—just as buying Toyota shares sends money to the selling shareholder, not to Toyota; clubs can also recruit new members at elevated prices when values are high, analogous to a public stock offering, and existing members grow resentful of crowded tee times in the same way existing shareholders dislike dilution.

### What were the circumstances of the taiko-dai accident at the Saijo Festival, and how can it be understood legally and philosophically?

On October 17, 2026 at around 5:50 p.m., the deputy mayor was crushed by a 3-ton taiko-dai carried by 150–200 people during a kaki-kurabe (float-lifting contest) at the Saijo Festival and died roughly one hour later, with Ehime prefectural police expected to investigate for possible professional negligence causing death; the host cited J.S. Mill's harm principle from On Liberty, noting that voluntary, informed self-endangerment is hard to restrict, but that there is no freedom to endanger others, making regulation of such traditional festivals a genuinely difficult line to draw.

### What does the government's proposed new benefit program entail, and what are the main counter-proposals from the ruling and opposition parties?

The government would pay an average of ¥30,000 per year for two years (FY2027–28) to roughly 20 million workers with personal annual incomes from around ¥530,000 up to the low-to-mid ¥3 million range (potentially ¥5 million for those with dependants); Komeito has proposed a flat ¥80,000 payment, while the Democratic Party for the People (Kokumin Minshhu-to) opposes a food consumption-tax cut and instead advocates ¥50,000 payments to low-to-middle-income earners.

### Is distributing cash benefits an effective response to yen depreciation and rising prices, and what should actually be done?

Cash handouts are counterproductive against inflation rooted in yen depreciation and rising import prices; the correct response is to raise the policy interest rate above 2% and have the Bank of Japan sell its large JGB holdings to absorb excess liquidity and push the yen higher, though BOJ bond sales carry the drawback of falling bond prices, rising interest rates, and higher government debt-servicing costs.

## Article

## Golf Club Memberships Hit 17-Year Highs

Buoyed by a post-COVID revival of interest in the sport, golf club membership prices in Japan have risen to levels not seen in roughly 17 years. The driving force this time is fundamentally different from the bubble era, when speculative money pushed some memberships above ¥100 million. Today's buyers are primarily enthusiasts who simply want to play. Demand is concentrated in the mid-range ¥3–5 million bracket, where prices have risen 1.5 to 2 times in certain areas. Greater Tokyo, Kanagawa, Fukuoka, and Okinawa have all posted gains, while the Tohoku region—Iwate, Akita, and Yamagata—has seen prices fall, underscoring wide regional disparities. The total number of golf courses has also declined roughly 10% from its peak.

## How Golf Club Memberships Work—Parallels with the Stock Market and Japan's Unique System

A golf club membership is essentially a tradeable "priority play right." When one changes hands on the secondary market, the proceeds go to the seller, not the club—exactly as buying Toyota shares sends money to the selling shareholder, not to Toyota. When membership prices are high, clubs can recruit new members at elevated rates, analogous to a public stock offering. And just as dilutive issuance frustrates existing shareholders, existing members grow resentful when new sign-ups make tee times harder to secure.

Japan's system, in which rights can be freely bought and sold, is distinctive by global standards. Overseas, clubs typically cap membership numbers and fill vacancies through a waiting list. The wave of golf course closures around 2000, in the aftermath of the bubble, was partly caused by membership prices collapsing below the deposits clubs owed to members, leaving those obligations impossible to repay.

Player demographics have shifted markedly. The share of golfers in their 50s has roughly halved—from around 20% circa 2000 to 8.8% today—while those in their 70s have surged from 0.5% to 9.0%, reflecting the same cohort simply aging. Meanwhile, golfers in their 20s recovered from around 5% in 2020 to 8.5% by 2024, a rebound driven partly by golf's appeal as an outdoor, socially distanced activity during the pandemic.

## Deputy Mayor Dies Under a Taiko-Dai Float at the Saijo Festival

At approximately 5:50 p.m. on October 17, 2026, during the Saijo Festival in Saijo City, Ehime Prefecture, a deputy mayor participating in the festival was crushed by a taiko-dai float and died roughly one hour later. A taiko-dai weighs 3 tons—the equivalent of about 1.5 Toyota Alphards—and is carried by 150 to 200 people. The centrepiece event, known as kaki-kurabe, involves multiple floats being lifted by human power after their wheels are removed, which carries an inherent risk of toppling and fatal crushing. Fatal accidents have occurred at Kishiwada's Danjiri Festival as well, and the Niihama taiko-dai is said to see a deadly incident roughly once every few years. Ehime prefectural police are expected to open an investigation into possible professional negligence causing death.

The host drew on the "harm principle" articulated by 19th-century British philosopher John Stuart Mill in *On Liberty*: there is no freedom to endanger others, but an adult's voluntary, knowing participation in a dangerous activity falls more readily within the sphere of individual liberty—much like the tension between mountaineering freedom and secondary rescue risks. Drawing the line for regulating festivals that local communities stake their lives on is genuinely difficult. In Niihama, direct clashes between taiko-dai floats are already banned; districts that violate the rule face suspension from the following year's event and, in effect, severed ties with major Sumitomo-affiliated companies.

## Government Proposes ¥30,000 Annual Payments to 20 Million People; Parties Differ

The government has presented ruling and opposition parties with a proposal to pay an average of ¥30,000 per year over two fiscal years—FY2027 and FY2028—to approximately 20 million low-to-middle-income workers. Several income thresholds are under discussion for the lower cutoff: ¥530,000, ¥740,000, or ¥1.06 million (the so-called "¥1.06 million wall," above which social insurance premiums apply). The upper limit sits in the low-to-mid ¥3 million range for individuals, potentially extending to around ¥5 million for those with dependants. Related legislation is expected to be put before the Lower House, but because the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lacks an Upper House majority, compromise with opposition parties is necessary.

The opposition is far from united. The Democratic Party for the People opposes a food consumption-tax cut and instead advocates ¥50,000 payments to low-to-middle-income earners. Komeito has proposed a flat ¥80,000 for all eligible recipients. The host argued that distributing cash is counterproductive as a remedy for inflation rooted in yen depreciation and imported-goods price increases. The correct approach, he contended, is twofold: raise the policy interest rate above 2%, and have the Bank of Japan sell its enormous JGB holdings to absorb excess liquidity and steer the yen back toward appreciation. He acknowledged, however, that BOJ bond sales carry real downsides—falling bond prices, rising interest rates, and higher government debt-servicing costs.

## Takeaways

- Golf club memberships have reached their highest prices in 17 years, with mid-range (¥3–5 million) memberships up 1.5 to 2 times driven by enthusiast demand rather than speculation, though regional disparities are sharp.
- A deputy mayor died after being crushed by a 3-ton taiko-dai at the Saijo Festival in Ehime, prompting a police investigation for professional negligence and reigniting debate—framed through Mill's harm principle—over how far safety regulation of traditional festivals can legitimately reach.
- The government has proposed ¥30,000 annual payments to 20 million low-to-middle-income workers for two years, but opposition parties are divided on the details, and commentators argue the real fix for yen-depreciation-driven inflation lies in monetary policy normalization—rate hikes and BOJ bond sales.