# 【10月6日】ロシア、バルト海の飛び地をめぐり「孤立化なら核使用も辞さず」と警告 - Show: News Connect あなたと経済をつなぐ5分間 #ニュースコネクト - Published: 2026-10-06 - Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1608666340_4286f5b5b660.html - Audio: https://anchor.fm/s/81fb5eec/podcast/play/126879293/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-9-5%2Fb753b7fb-0848-53b3-f37d-233cfc1af4b1.mp3 - Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary. Russia sent a letter to NATO warning that it would use all available force, including nuclear weapons, if NATO attempted to isolate its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad — a threat President Putin echoed in a speech the following day. As hybrid attacks targeting Baltic states continue to mount, the scope of NATO's collective defense clause (Article 5) is being put to the test. This episode explains the strategic backdrop and how the United States and NATO allies are responding. ## What this episode answers ### Why did Russia warn NATO that it would not rule out using nuclear weapons? Russia warned NATO via a letter — reported by the Financial Times on September 30 — that any attempt to isolate Kaliningrad would trigger the use of all available force, including nuclear weapons. Putin reiterated the same position in a speech on October 1, declaring that "the world is living through a dangerous moment" and warning NATO members not to escalate further. ### What is Kaliningrad, and why is it strategically important to Russia? Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea, bordering Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east, with no land connection to the Russian mainland. It is home to Russia's Baltic Fleet and serves as a critical military base; surrounded entirely by NATO members, defending this separated territory has become Russia's foremost security challenge. ### What specific actions has Russia been taking in and around the Baltic Sea? Reports point to hybrid attacks against the Baltic states — including cyberattacks on government agencies and infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and physical sabotage — all designed to destabilize societies without direct military confrontation. On the 15th, a drone entered Lithuanian airspace, scrambling Italian fighter jets serving under NATO. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also analyzed a scenario in which Russia sends a small force across the border into the Estonian border town of Narva — an incursion ambiguous enough to avoid being classified as full-scale war. ### What does it mean that NATO's collective defense obligation — Article 5 — is being tested? NATO's Article 5 is the collective defense clause stating that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. Polish Prime Minister Tusk has argued that Russia is testing whether this clause will be triggered by operating in a gray zone — taking actions that fall short of outright war and therefore make a clear Article 5 response difficult to justify. ### What is the 'NATO Shield Act' introduced in the U.S. Congress? The NATO Shield Act, introduced on the 24th by bipartisan members of Congress, would prohibit the president from withdrawing from NATO without congressional approval, legally locking in the United States' commitment to European defense. ## Article ## Extraordinary Diet Session: Consumption Tax Cut Takes Center Stage Japan's extraordinary Diet session convened on October 5 — the first since the cabinet reshuffle — and will run 69 days through December 12. The central legislative fight is expected to be debate over a bill to reduce consumption tax on food items. Other issues on the agenda include a controversy over remarks by the Agriculture Minister related to budget cuts, and proposals for parliamentary reform such as reducing the number of Diet members. Host Takafumi Nomura (野村高文) raised concerns about whether a tax rate, once lowered, can realistically be raised again, and about the added complexity such a change would introduce to the tax code. ## What Is Kaliningrad? Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea. It shares borders with Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east, but has no land connection to the Russian mainland. Before World War II it was German territory, known by the German name Königsberg — the city where the philosopher Kant spent his entire life and made foundational contributions to modern philosophy. After the war it became Soviet territory and was later inherited by Russia. Today it is home to the Baltic Fleet and serves as a critical Russian military base. The enclave is entirely surrounded by NATO member states. Poland and Lithuania share its borders directly; Latvia and Estonia lie nearby; and Sweden and Finland — both of which joined NATO following Russia's invasion of Ukraine — sit along the Baltic coast. How to defend this territory, cut off from the Russian mainland, has long been one of Russia's most pressing security concerns. ## The Nuclear Warning The Financial Times reported on September 30 that Russia had sent a letter to NATO stating its readiness to use all available force — including nuclear weapons — if NATO attempted to isolate Kaliningrad. President Putin made the same point in a speech the following day, October 1, declaring that "the world is living through a dangerous moment" and warning NATO nations not to escalate the situation further. ## Hybrid Attacks in the Baltic Region Russia's actions have not been limited to words. Reports indicate that the Baltic states have been subjected to hybrid attacks — cyberattacks targeting government agencies and critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and physical sabotage — all tactics designed to sow societal disruption without triggering a conventional military response. On the 15th, a drone entered Lithuanian airspace — with Russia's involvement neither confirmed nor denied — prompting NATO member Italy's fighter jets to scramble. The U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has also analyzed a scenario in which Russia sends a small armed contingent across the border into Narva, an Estonian border city with a very high proportion of ethnic Russian residents — a move calibrated to be ambiguous enough that it could not easily be classified as full-scale war. ## Testing Article 5: Russia's Gray-Zone Strategy Polish Prime Minister Tusk, whose country borders Kaliningrad, has argued that Russia is probing the limits of Western resolve. His assessment is that Russia is operating in a deliberate gray zone — taking actions that stop short of outright war — in order to test whether NATO's collective defense clause, Article 5, which holds that an attack on one member is an attack on all, would actually be invoked. In May, Russia implied retaliation against Latvia, accusing it of facilitating Ukrainian drone attacks. Latvia's acting president flatly dismissed the Russian claims in an interview with state broadcasters as "a complete lie," adding: "We are now facing a new reality. Against attempts to destabilize this reality, we must always respond calmly, both at home and abroad." In the United States, efforts are underway to reinforce alliance cohesion. On the 24th, bipartisan members of Congress introduced the NATO Shield Act, which would bar the president from withdrawing from NATO without congressional approval — legally cementing America's commitment to European defense. ## Implications for Japan In August, President Putin visited the Northern Territories, drawing a strong protest from the Japanese government. What is happening around the Baltic is not a distant concern. In Japan's own neighborhood, gray-zone provocations — military aircraft approaching or entering Japanese airspace — have similarly been observed, probing the limits of Japan's defense posture. Host Nomura closed by echoing the words of Latvia's acting president: the appropriate response to such actions is to stay grounded in objective facts and maintain a calm, measured stance. ## Takeaways - Russia warned NATO in a letter — and Putin confirmed in a speech — that any attempt to isolate Kaliningrad could trigger the use of nuclear weapons. - Hybrid threats in the Baltic region are escalating, encompassing cyberattacks, drone incursions, and ISW-analyzed border-crossing scenarios targeting NATO member states. - The U.S. Congress responded to Russia's gray-zone strategy by introducing the bipartisan NATO Shield Act, which would legally bind America's commitment to the alliance.