# 【10月9日】フランス国債急落と街頭デモ。日本マネー23兆円の逆流と「マクロノミクス」

- Show: News Connect あなたと経済をつなぐ5分間 #ニュースコネクト
- Published: 2026-10-09
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1608666340_11231035d23c.html
- Audio: https://anchor.fm/s/81fb5eec/podcast/play/127093620/https%3A%2F%2Fd3ctxlq1ktw2nl.cloudfront.net%2Fstaging%2F2026-9-8%2Fba0337b5-9186-edfb-bca6-8d95f7d80196.mp3
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

In October 2026, France is simultaneously rocked by street protests — drawing more than 250,000 participants and forcing roughly 900 schools to suspend classes over education budget cuts — and a sharp collapse in French government bonds on international markets. The decisive trigger for the bond sell-off was Japanese institutional investors offloading ¥23 trillion worth of French debt. The episode lays bare how a decade of "Macrononomics" has driven France's public finances to their most precarious position in a generation.

## What this episode answers

### What directly triggered the crash in French government bonds?

Japanese institutional investors sold approximately ¥23 trillion in French bonds, redirecting funds into German and Japanese government bonds — a decisive blow that compounded the pressure from global rate rises already targeting France's weak fiscal position.

### Why did Japanese investors sell their French government bonds?

Japan's long-term interest rate broke above 3% for the first time in thirty years; once currency-hedging costs tied to the weak yen were deducted, the return advantage of holding French bonds essentially vanished, making Japanese government bonds — offering a 3% return — the more attractive alternative.

### Why did the Macron government's reform agenda lead to fiscal deterioration?

The government spent roughly €10 billion (approximately ¥1.7 trillion) to calm the 2018 Gilets Jaunes protests, then made repeated large fiscal outlays for COVID-19 and energy-cost relief tied to the Ukraine war, burying the growth-oriented reform agenda under a record mountain of debt.

### How serious is France's fiscal situation?

France's fiscal deficit has exceeded 5% of GDP, its debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 119%, and the 10-year bond yield briefly approached 5% — surpassing even Italy, once regarded as the epicenter of Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

### What is the scale of the street protests in France, and what are they demanding?

More than 250,000 high-school students and teachers took part in nationwide protests demanding higher education budgets, forcing roughly 900 schools to suspend classes.

## Article

## A Nation Gripped by Double Crisis

In the autumn of 2026, France is in turmoil on two fronts at once. Across the country, high-school students and teachers demanding higher education budgets have flooded the streets in protests drawing more than 250,000 participants, forcing roughly 900 schools to halt classes. Running in parallel with that street-level anger, French government bonds have suffered a sharp collapse in international financial markets — a second crisis unfolding simultaneously.

## Fiscal Deterioration and the "FROGS" Label

As interest rates climbed globally, markets began singling out countries with fragile public finances, and France emerged as their primary target. The country attracted an unflattering new label: "FROGS" — a play on the old "PIIGS" acronym once applied to the southern European nations that fell into debt crises — now directed at a French government squarely in the crosshairs. France's fiscal deficit has exceeded 5% of GDP; its debt-to-GDP ratio has ballooned to 119%. The yield on French 10-year bonds briefly approached 5%, surpassing the levels seen in Italy, which was once regarded as the epicenter of Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

## Japan's ¥23 Trillion Reversal Delivers the Decisive Blow

The factor that truly accelerated the collapse of French bonds was the behavior of Japanese investors. Japanese institutions held approximately 5.2% of all outstanding French government bonds — ¥23 trillion in total — making them one of France's most important creditors. For years, Japanese investors had actively accumulated French debt, drawn by yields that compared favorably within the eurozone. That calculus changed when Japan's long-term interest rates broke above 3% for the first time in thirty years. Once currency-hedging costs associated with the weak yen were deducted, the appeal of holding French bonds had virtually disappeared; Japanese government bonds, now offering a 3% return, became the more attractive alternative. A fund manager at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management — one of Japan's largest investment houses — stated that the firm had sold its entire French bond holdings, citing France's fiscal risk, and redirected the assets into German and Japanese government bonds. When Japan's long-stable buyers all pulled back at once and repatriated their funds, it became a significant factor pushing up France's borrowing costs.

## The Stumble of Macrononomics

How did France reach this point? The Macron government, now in its tenth year, was not idle. Roland Lescure (ロラン・レスキュール), serving as the administration's fourth finance minister, came to politics from a career as chief investment officer at a major Canadian pension fund. Declaring that "wealth must first be created before it can be distributed," he has championed deregulation and corporate tax cuts with the goal of transforming France into a startup powerhouse. Yet the reform drive was repeatedly derailed by crises. In 2018, the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) movement — sparked by a planned fuel-tax increase — turned violent, and the government spent roughly €10 billion (approximately ¥1.7 trillion) on cash transfers to low-income households to restore calm. Successive shocks followed: the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war each required enormous fiscal outlays to suppress energy costs. The cumulative effect is that "Macrononomics," designed to stimulate growth through structural reform, has instead produced France's largest debt pile on record.

## Left and Right Populism Ahead of Next Spring's Presidential Election

With next spring's presidential election approaching, Marine Le Pen (ルペン) of the far-right Rassemblement National, currently leading the polls, has pledged to bring the fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP — a nod to market expectations — while simultaneously demanding that the European Central Bank intervene with rate cuts. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (メランション) has gone further, calling for the central bank to purchase government bonds directly and threatening to prosecute the ECB president for treason. Left and right populism is battering the country, the government, and the public with equal force. Bond spreads have stabilized somewhat in recent weeks, but the underlying wound in France's public finances has not healed.

## A Lesson for Japan

The turbulence engulfing France is not a distant drama for Japan, which carries its own enormous debt burden. The high-school students demanding more investment in education are raising a legitimate concern — but increasing future-oriented spending while maintaining generous social-security and pension systems means more borrowing, and in a world where high interest rates have returned, markets will not extend unlimited patience. France's crisis poses a pointed question to Japan as well: how do advanced economies that have long deferred fiscal pain rebuild themselves within their means?

## Takeaways

- Japanese institutional investors' sale of ¥23 trillion in French bonds was the decisive trigger for the bond crash, making clear how Japan's rising interest rates are now rippling directly into European debt markets.
- Macrononomics — built on deregulation and corporate tax cuts — was overwhelmed by the fiscal costs of the Gilets Jaunes crisis, COVID-19, and the Ukraine war, leaving France's debt-to-GDP ratio at 119% and its 10-year yield briefly above Italy's.
- France's predicament — a high-rate market punishing fiscal weakness without mercy — is a warning Japan, burdened by its own massive debt, cannot treat as someone else's problem.