# 森永康平「新給付制度で平均3万円案」「相次ぐサイバー攻撃 日本経済への影響は？」「フランスで大規模デモが一部暴徒化」10月20日

- Show: 上泉雄一のええなぁ！
- Published: 2026-10-19
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1588682529_f2cf6b079cbb.html
- Audio: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/MBSINC3045595139.mp3
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

Economic analyst Morinaga Kohei (森永康平) joined the show to break down three major stories: the government's proposed new benefit scheme targeting roughly 20 million low-to-middle income workers at an average of ¥30,000 per year, a sharp qualitative shift in cyberattacks exemplified by the leak of approximately 1.26 million personal records from the Hankyu Hanshin department store group, and a mass protest in France involving around 550,000 participants that turned partially violent. Morinaga offered pointed analysis on each topic, cautioning against overblown expectations for the benefit plan, tracing how AI has transformed the cyber-threat landscape, and situating the French unrest within a continent-wide surge of anger over the cost of living.

## What this episode answers

### How effective would the proposed average ¥30,000 annual benefit be in easing household financial burdens?

The annual ¥30,000 works out to only about ¥2,500 per month, which is unlikely to make a meaningful difference to household finances; on top of that, the administrative costs of verifying incomes and transferring payments could balloon to tens of billions of yen, risking a backlash that frames the entire expansionary fiscal agenda as ineffective.

### Why is the government's statement that it 'does not rule out' bond issuance to fund consumption tax cuts not considered a problem?

Insisting categorically that no bonds will be issued would directly contradict the administration's expansionary economic platform; with no current acceleration in yen depreciation or spike in bond yields, market impact remains limited, and expressing the position on a spectrum rather than as an absolute is the right approach, according to Morinaga.

### How have cyberattacks changed compared to before?

The old model of ransomware attacks targeting large corporations for customer data has given way to AI scanning for vulnerabilities 24/7 across all industries and sizes, with attacks now capable of physically disabling infrastructure such as refrigeration systems and autonomous vehicles.

### How can individuals protect themselves against cyberattack risks?

The fundamentals are enabling multi-factor authentication—including biometrics—on the assumption that passwords are already compromised, keeping the OS and all software fully up to date, and setting up email alerts for credit card transactions to detect fraud quickly.

### What is the background behind the large-scale protests in France?

Student protests in September over teacher shortages and aging school buildings escalated when labor unions and others struggling with rising prices joined in; discontent over inflation and declining public services is spreading across Europe, with similar protests breaking out in Belgium, Italy, and Portugal.

## Article

## New Benefit Scheme "Average ¥30,000" — Don't Expect Too Much

The government's proposed new benefit program would distribute an annual average of ¥30,000 to roughly 20 million low-to-middle income workers who carry heavy tax and social insurance burdens. Workers earning up to around ¥3 million per year appear likely to qualify, with a phased rollout under consideration for fiscal years 2027 and 2028.

Morinaga described the policy as better than doing nothing, but was quick to flag its limits. The annual figure translates to about ¥2,500 a month—hardly enough to transform household finances. Administrative costs for verifying incomes and processing transfers could run into the tens to hundreds of billions of yen. His sharpest concern: if the program is seen as expensive to run yet underwhelming in effect, it could fuel a broader backlash against expansionary fiscal policy as a whole.

He identified a double problem with the roughly ¥3 million income ceiling. There is a cliff-edge effect—someone earning ¥3.99 million and someone earning ¥4.01 million are in near-identical circumstances, yet one receives the benefit and the other does not. At the same time, middle-income households earning ¥4–6 million, who are also struggling with high prices, are left out entirely. "A flat universal payment would be the fastest approach," Morinaga said, "but that invites criticism of handing money to the wealthy. Any design will draw fire. What is essential is strong leadership and a convincing explanation."

## Consumption Tax Cuts and Bond Issuance — What "Not Ruling It Out" Really Means

The Takaichi (高市) administration's recent remark that bond issuance "is not something to be denied" drew public attention. Morinaga endorsed the direction, arguing that the administration's greatest risk is not the opposition but financial markets: rising interest rates or a sharp yen depreciation could destabilize the government's political base. Yet over-accommodating markets by pledging never to issue bonds would directly contradict the core of an expansionary economic platform.

Framing the position as a spectrum—neither "we will issue bonds freely" nor "we will never issue bonds"—is the correct approach, Morinaga said. So far, neither a yen slide nor a bond yield spike has materialized, keeping market reaction limited. He also noted a tactical advantage: if opposition parties press on how bond issuance will be financed, the administration can ask what financing plan those same parties had in mind when they campaigned for abolishing or reducing the consumption tax.

## The New Phase of Cyberattacks — Indiscriminate and Physical

On October 19, the Hankyu Hanshin department store group (阪急阪神百貨店グループ) announced that unauthorized access to three of its websites had exposed part of approximately 1.26 million personal records, including names and addresses. Reports of cyberattacks have appeared daily throughout October, spanning sectors and company sizes alike.

Morinaga identified two qualitative shifts. The first is indiscriminate targeting. Where ransomware attacks once focused on extracting customer data from large corporations in exchange for payment, AI now runs vulnerability scans 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, sweeping data from whatever organizations can be breached regardless of industry or scale.

The second shift is physical damage. As companies centrally manage factories and equipment through digital systems, cyberattacks can now halt temperature-control systems for refrigeration and freezing units—an incident that caused massive food disposal in France. Scenarios such as hijacking autonomous vehicles are also technically feasible, Morinaga said, noting that "the threat level has jumped several phases in just the past few months." On calls to slow AI development, he was categorical: like nuclear weapons, "it won't stop"—if one country holds back while others accelerate, it forfeits strategic dominance, so the development race will continue regardless.

## Personal Cybersecurity Measures

Morinaga's practical advice began from a single premise: assume your personal data has already been leaked. From there, the priorities are enabling multi-factor authentication, keeping operating systems and software fully current, and turning on email notifications for credit card transactions. Even if a password is compromised, combining a smartphone notification with biometric verification makes direct financial damage far harder to inflict. Passkey authentication using fingerprint or facial recognition is now spreading to brokerage accounts, he noted, improving the balance between security and convenience.

For companies, he predicted a necessary shift away from the old mindset of collecting every piece of data possible, toward a policy of simply not retaining customer information that is no longer needed.

## France's Mass Protests — Anger Over Living Costs Spreads Across Europe

On October 17, approximately 550,000 people demonstrated across France. The protests turned partially violent, with clashes involving police, arson at public buildings, and looting of shops; a nighttime curfew was imposed on parts of Paris. Similar demonstrations over rising living costs have broken out in Belgium, Italy, and Portugal, signaling a broader European wave of unrest.

The movement began in September with student protests over teacher shortages and deteriorating school buildings. Labor unions and others suffering under high prices subsequently joined, dramatically expanding the scale. Morinaga had begun a detailed analysis of the situation, but the audio segment ended at this point; his full commentary was to continue in the next block.

## Takeaways

- The proposed ¥30,000-per-year benefit amounts to just ¥2,500 a month, and if administrative costs balloon, the policy risks triggering a backlash against expansionary fiscal spending as a whole.
- Cyberattacks have entered a new AI-driven phase of indiscriminate, round-the-clock targeting and physical infrastructure damage, making multi-factor authentication and up-to-date software an urgent personal priority.
- France's protests—sparked by students and amplified by unions angry over inflation and public service cuts—reflect a Europe-wide surge of social unrest that has already spread to Belgium, Italy, and Portugal.