# 2026年 10月19日（月）コメンテーター：須田慎一郎 峯村健司

- Show: 飯田浩司のOK! Cozy up！ Podcast【最新回のみ】
- Published: 2026-10-19
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1366187377_f3c5129b6095.html
- Audio: https://traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/67122501-9b17-4d77-84bd-a93d00dc791e/3c31cad9-230a-4a5f-b487-a9de001adcdd/89d9eb7f-4e66-4c95-a22e-b4e8001bc950/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=47a5ec59-4c22-496d-b71d-b2a4001ebd5d
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

Monday's edition of Iida Koji's OK! Cozy Up! Podcast (飯田浩司のOK! Cozy up！) opened with commentators Suda Shin'ichiro (須田慎一郎) and Minemura Kenji (峯村健司) analyzing the consumption-tax reduction bill set to enter full Diet deliberations on October 20, focusing on whether the ruling coalition can close a four-seat deficit in the upper house. The show also dug into the Yokohama mayoral by-election, won decisively by attorney Harasawa Atsumi (原沢厚美), and the resignation of Agriculture Minister Yanagino (柳野農林水産大臣) amid cascading scandal.

## What this episode answers

### How might the consumption-tax reduction bill pass the upper house, and how are negotiations with opposition parties progressing?

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito are four seats short of an upper-house majority, so Suda sees formal amendment talks with Yurinomikai (国民民主党, Democratic Party for the People) as the likeliest path to passage; DPP Secretary-General Haiba's statement last week that the party is 'not opposed across the board' signals a possible shift in momentum. Funding would come from above-forecast tax revenues and a review of special tax measures, with no new deficit bonds or tax hikes planned, and both the Prime Minister's Office and Finance Ministry have told reporters the money is 'secured.'

### Why has the Takaichi cabinet's approval rating stayed relatively high despite a string of scandals?

Minemura reports that Deputy Secretary-General Hagiwara (萩生田幹事長代行) said Prime Minister Takaichi (高市総理) has been fulfilling her manifesto commitments one by one in checklist fashion, an approach he called unprecedented in LDP history; Kyodo News polls show approval holding near 49%. The Engel coefficient hitting a 44-year high of 28.6% in 2025 has also built public sympathy for the consumption-tax cut.

### What factors drove attorney Harasawa Atsumi's landslide victory in the Yokohama mayoral by-election?

Harasawa, backed by a broad coalition of LDP, Nippon Ishin no Kai, DPP, and Komeito city assembly members, won against a split opposition in which votes were divided between the former mayor Yamanaka (山中) and a separate candidate; pre-election surveys showed roughly 80% of voters said the power-harassment issue would influence their vote, and Harasawa's legal background boosted her credibility on that point. Voter anger at the cost of the by-election—over 1.5 billion yen in public funds—also hurt the incumbent camp.

### What led to Agriculture Minister Yanagino's resignation, and what is the local political background?

Yanagino's resignation stemmed from a combination of a bitter conservative split in his home district of Tochigi's 3rd constituency and clumsy crisis management: local LDP-aligned mayors and assembly members rallied behind an independent candidate after Yanagino refused to accommodate demands from the area's dominant construction and agriculture industries, and a wave of leaks hit the moment he became agriculture minister. Hagiwara advised him to retract and apologize immediately after the first allegation, but Yanagino ignored the advice; a third scandal—including suspected Public Offices Election Act violations over bus transportation—changed the atmosphere inside the Prime Minister's Office and forced his resignation.

### Why is the reemployment problem for retiring Self-Defense Force personnel so serious, and what countermeasures is the Defense Ministry considering?

Self-Defense Force personnel face mandatory early retirement in their mid-50s but have very limited reemployment options compared with police, firefighters, and the Coast Guard, making the early retirement age a recruitment disadvantage. The Defense Ministry is studying the creation of a single company to handle facility management, security, transportation, and training, with Minemura arguing the venture should be framed positively as channeling SDF skills into private-sector and national benefit.

## Article

## DeNA sweeps Hanshin 4-0 to reach Japan Series — Hanshin fans on set look crestfallen

DeNA clinched its Japan Series berth by sweeping Hanshin 4-0 in the Central League Climax Series Final Stage at Koshien Stadium. Both commentator Suda, a Hanshin fan, and host Iida started the show visibly deflated. Listener messages poured in — 'Are you bedridden?' and 'Let's end the show after the first 15 minutes' — drawing laughs even as the two struggled to hide their heartbreak. The Japan Series between DeNA and SoftBank opens at Yokohama Stadium on Saturday.

## Morning papers in focus — digital textbooks, electronic warrants, retiring SDF personnel

**Asahi Shimbun** led its front page with the education minister's draft policy for textbooks from 2030 onward, which would keep paper books as the primary medium and relegate digital versions to a supplementary role. Iida noted that a tablet in a first-grader's backpack is heavy enough to topple the child backward, and said the Ministry of Education must also grapple with security concerns surrounding Chinese and other foreign-made devices.

**Yomiuri Shimbun** reported that electronic warrants will be piloted in stimulant-drug cases in four prefectures before the fiscal year ends. Both commentators welcomed the move, noting that the current system of physically retrieving warrants from court creates information-leak risks that digitization would eliminate.

**Sankei Shimbun**'s report on plans to set up a dedicated reemployment company for retiring SDF personnel prompted Suda to call the situation 'a structural problem.' SDF members face mandatory early retirement in their mid-50s, far sooner than police, firefighters, or Coast Guard personnel, which Suda said puts the SDF at a disadvantage when recruiting. The Defense Ministry is exploring a single company that would integrate facility management, security, transportation, and training. Minemura argued the initiative should be pursued 'with the positive mindset of returning SDF skills to private industry and the national interest.'

## Consumption-tax reduction bill — bridging a four-seat gap in the upper house, and the funding sources that 'can't be named yet'

Legislation to cut the consumption tax on food by one percentage point for two years enters deliberations in the lower house on October 20. The ruling coalition is aiming for lower-house passage in early November and full enactment before the December 12 session deadline.

The real battle is in the upper house. The LDP-Komeito coalition is four seats short of a majority there, making opposition cooperation essential. Suda said that while there is talk of wooing independents, he believes 'the government and ruling parties are actually moving toward the orthodox path of winning over Yurinomikai through amendment talks.' He cited DPP Secretary-General Haiba's comment last week that the party is 'not opposed across the board' as a sign that the wind may be shifting. The main opposition Chuudo Kaikaku Rengo (中道改革連合) is, in his assessment, internally fragmented, which gives the LDP room to maneuver.

On funding, Suda explained why the government cannot yet disclose details: budget proposals must pass intra-ruling-party review before cabinet approval, and announcing part of the funding source prematurely would draw fire from within the coalition. That said, he said reporting from the Prime Minister's Office and Finance Ministry consistently returns the phrase 'it has been secured.' The plan relies on above-forecast tax revenues and a review of special tax measures, with no new deficit bonds and no tax hikes. Tax revenues have exceeded forecasts for six consecutive years — an outcome Suda attributed partly to overly conservative elasticity assumptions — and the government is said to have identified a path to roughly 5 trillion yen annually.

Minemura shared remarks from Deputy Secretary-General Hagiwara, who told him that Prime Minister Takaichi has been 'fulfilling her manifesto pledges one by one in checklist fashion — there has never been a government like this in LDP history.' Minemura called that the democratic basic that had been missing. On the approval rating of around 49% in a Kyodo News poll, he noted it 'hasn't fallen much, given the unpleasant run of scandals.' With the Engel coefficient reaching 28.6% in 2025, its highest level since 1981, he said a consumption-tax cut was 'unavoidable.'

## Yanagino's resignation — a conservative split in Tochigi's 3rd district compounded by clumsy crisis management

Both commentators traced the agriculture minister's fall to a toxic combination of local electoral dynamics and poor damage control. In a constituency where construction and farming are virtually the only major industries, Yanagino's refusal to accommodate those sectors' demands generated fierce local backlash. Pro-LDP local mayors and assembly members rallied behind an independent challenger — a classic conservative-split scenario — and leaks began flowing the moment Yanagino took office.

Minemura said Hagiwara advised Yanagino to 'retract and apologize immediately' after the first allegation surfaced, but Yanagino did not comply. A second and third wave of reports followed, including allegations of Public Offices Election Act violations over bus transportation. Prime Minister Takaichi was watching whether he could 'fulfill his accountability,' but when the third scandal broke, the mood inside the Prime Minister's Office shifted and resignation followed. Minemura's verdict: 'If he had apologized at the start, this would have disappeared. His clumsy response was the biggest problem.'

## Yokohama mayoral by-election — attorney Harasawa wins in a zero-count landslide as the liberal camp splinters

The by-election triggered by former Mayor Yamanaka's power-harassment case — confirmed by a third-party committee — drew seven candidates and produced an immediate winner on election night. Attorney Harasawa Atsumi, running without party affiliation but backed by a broad coalition of LDP, Nippon Ishin no Kai, DPP, and Komeito city assembly members, won in her first bid for office.

The constitutional-democratic and reform-alliance side split its vote between Yamanaka and another candidate, failing to consolidate its organizational strength. Suda highlighted that the runner-up was from the opposition camp and said 'the decline of the Sahari (left-leaning) liberal forces was striking.' Pre-election surveys showed about 80% of voters said the power-harassment issue would factor into their choice, and Harasawa's legal background amplified her credibility on that issue. Both commentators also noted strong voter resentment at the cost of the by-election — more than 1.5 billion yen in public funds.

Minemura added that the third-party committee's report revealed the former mayor's language toward city staff was 'quite extreme,' and argued that the episode underscores the need for institutional mechanisms to make the unique powers of a local chief executive more transparent and to prevent private interference in personnel decisions.

## Takeaways

- The consumption-tax reduction bill faces a four-seat deficit in the upper house, with DPP amendment talks seen as the key to passage; funding is said to be secured through above-forecast tax revenues and special-measure reviews, though formal disclosure awaits intra-ruling-party approval.
- Attorney Harasawa Atsumi won the Yokohama mayoral by-election in a landslide thanks to broad cross-party organizational support and an opposition camp split by internal division and voter backlash over the power-harassment scandal.
- Agriculture Minister Yanagino's resignation resulted from a conservative-split in his home district and his failure to follow advice to apologize immediately, allowing a first scandal to metastasize into three separate reported violations.