# 2026年 10月16日（金）コメンテーター：宮家邦彦

- Show: 飯田浩司のOK! Cozy up！ Podcast【最新回のみ】
- Published: 2026-10-16
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1366187377_e0630404f936.html
- Audio: https://traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/67122501-9b17-4d77-84bd-a93d00dc791e/3c31cad9-230a-4a5f-b487-a9de001adcdd/7f283b79-4b7d-410d-9721-b4e4017b35d3/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=47a5ec59-4c22-496d-b71d-b2a4001ebd5d
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

On the October 16, 2026 broadcast of Iida Koji no OK! Cozy up! Podcast, foreign policy commentator Miyake Kunihiko used Russia's detention of a Hokkaido Shimbun reporter on espionage charges to expose Japan's structural vulnerabilities: no spy prevention law and no functioning foreign intelligence agency. The episode also covered AI-powered cyberattacks targeting smartphone apps, Starlink service restrictions affecting Ukraine's military operations, and the discovery that the Chinese People's Liberation Army had been broadcasting fake AIS vessel identification signals near Taiwan.

## What this episode answers

### Why can't Japan mount effective countermeasures against Russia's detention of the Hokkaido Shimbun reporter on espionage charges?

Japan has no spy prevention law, so it cannot arrest a foreign operative and hold them as a bargaining chip for a prisoner exchange; its foreign intelligence agency is also not yet operational. Miyake lamented that Japan has long been called a 'paradise for spies' and said the country is structurally forced into a one-sided position.

### Why has AI-powered cyberattacking suddenly become so much more serious?

Miyake argues the core problem is not that AI makes individual attacks more precise, but that it allows attackers to launch a massive number of attacks in a very short time — a shotgun approach where, since no server is perfect, something will always hit.

### How are Starlink restrictions affecting the Ukrainian military, and what lies behind them?

A senior Ukrainian government official stated that Starlink restrictions on equipment movement speed and connection continuity are hampering military operations including drone guidance; Musk suggested U.S. government involvement, and Miyake pointed to Trump's domestic political motive of lowering energy prices before the midterm elections.

### Why isn't a specific GDP ratio for defense spending written into Japan's national security documents?

Miyake's position is that Japan should first calculate what equipment is actually needed and then see what the total comes to, rather than writing in a specific percentage upfront — doing it the other way around, especially in response to U.S. pressure, is putting the cart before the horse and should be debated in the Diet.

### How should we interpret the Chinese military's fake AIS signals during exercises near Taiwan?

Miyake called fake AIS signals an entirely expected tactic and said the basic response is to develop superior technology to surface accurate information and always plan for the adversary's second and third moves.

## Article

## Hanshin's Losing Streak and Climax Series Game 3

The broadcast opened on a lighter note, with host Iida Koji (飯田浩司) confessing he had lost a round of mahjong, drawing laughter from commentator Miyake Kunihiko (宮家邦彦) and the rest of the cast. A listener email set a different tone, reporting that the Hanshin Tigers had lost to the DeNA BayStars for two consecutive nights in the Climax Series Final Stage — losses so painful they had woken the listener up three times during the night. With the Central League champion's built-in advantage counted, DeNA now leads by two wins. Miyake offered consolation: "Only time can fix this." The show also announced that Game 3 of the Final Stage between Hanshin and DeNA would be broadcast live on Nippon Broadcasting System's Naiter Special at 6 p.m. that evening.

## Defense Budget, Stalker GPS, and China's Fake AIS Signals

**Defense spending target deferred**: The Asahi Shimbun led its front page with the news that the government would postpone committing to an explicit 3.5% of GDP figure for defense spending. While the National Security Strategy documents already outline a major increase in defense expenditure, the planned revision will again omit a specific number. Miyake pushed back sharply: "We should start by figuring out what we actually need, then see what that adds up to. Writing in a number demanded by the United States before doing that analysis is putting the cart before the horse — this is a debate that belongs in the Diet."

**GPS monitoring for stalkers**: The National Police Agency announced the creation of an expert panel to examine mandating GPS devices and compulsory counseling for stalking perpetrators. Miyake called the measure "entirely natural," noting that some countries go further and implant devices in convicted offenders. "Protecting victims' rights must come first," he said. "Treating the perpetrator's rights as the top priority is simply out of balance."

**China's fake AIS signals**: According to the Sankei Shimbun's front page, it was discovered around December 2025 that fake AIS (Automatic Identification System) vessel identification numbers — traced to the vicinity of People's Liberation Army naval bases — had been appearing online. Japanese authorities concluded this was an attempt at electronic interference coinciding with PLA exercises near Taiwan. Miyake was blunt: "Of course they're going to do this. There is no reason to expect them to stop." The key response, he said, is to develop superior technology to surface accurate information and always plan for the adversary's second and third moves. Separately, the Joint Staff Office of the Japan Self-Defense Forces announced that two Chinese aircraft carriers transited the strait between Okinawa's main island and Miyako Island at around the same time and began exercises in waters approximately 250 km south of Ishigaki Island.

## Russia's Detention of the Hokkaido Shimbun Reporter and Japan's Lack of a Spy Law

Russian authorities detained a Japanese reporter from the Hokkaido Shimbun on espionage charges. Japan's Foreign Minister denied that the government conducts espionage. Miyake assessed the situation calmly — "Russia is simply operating by its own logic" — but used the episode to highlight a deep structural weakness.

Japan has no spy prevention law, which means it cannot arrest a foreign intelligence operative and hold them as leverage for a prisoner exchange. A foreign intelligence agency is only now being established, scheduled to launch the following month, so none exists at present. "Japan has long been called a paradise for spies," Miyake lamented. "Without at least some regulation, foreign operatives can do whatever they like." He also noted that even if a spy law existed, prosecuting a case in court would risk exposing sources and classified methods. The greater value, he argued, lies in deterrence: "Whether to bring someone to trial is a separate question. What matters is having the law available as a deterrent well before that stage."

## AI-Enabled Cyberattacks and Personal Data Leaks

The National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) flagged incidents in which attackers exploited server vulnerabilities identified by analyzing smartphone apps. Android apps are the primary target, but iOS apps face similar risks, and AI is suspected to have played a role in enabling the attacks.

Miyake identified the core danger: "The issue is not that AI makes each individual attack more precise. It is that AI enables attackers to launch an enormous number of attacks in a very short time." No server is perfect, he explained, so a shotgun approach guarantees some attacks will connect. Defending against this with AI is equally difficult, producing an endless cycle. He predicted that data breaches will keep rising and urged individuals to stop reusing passwords and to use a dedicated password manager.

## Starlink Restrictions and the Ukraine Situation

A senior Ukrainian government official stated that SpaceX's Starlink service — used for drone guidance and other defense operations — is subject to restrictions on equipment movement speed and connection continuity that are hampering military operations. Elon Musk suggested that the U.S. government may be involved in imposing those restrictions.

Miyake noted that President Trump has been speaking with President Putin by phone and increasing pressure on Ukraine. "There is a view that Trump has a domestic political motive — bringing energy prices down before the midterm elections," he said. Meanwhile, President Zelensky has signaled a readiness to resume strikes on energy infrastructure. Miyake was skeptical that any genuine ceasefire understanding ever existed: "I question whether there was ever a real agreement. You should not take Trump's statements at face value. He is, above all, a man who speaks in hopes."

## Takeaways

- Japan's lack of a spy prevention law and the absence of a functioning foreign intelligence agency leave it structurally unable to mount effective countermeasures when its citizens are detained abroad on espionage charges.
- AI has made cyberattacks dangerous primarily by enabling a massive increase in volume rather than precision, creating a structural threat in which data breaches will continue to grow since no server is impenetrable.
- Starlink restrictions on Ukraine's military operations and Trump's pressure on Kyiv appear intertwined with U.S. midterm election domestic politics, and Miyake warned that Trump's public statements on any Ukraine agreement should not be taken at face value.