# 2026年  10月23日（金）コメンテーター：神保謙、永濱利廣

- Show: 飯田浩司のOK! Cozy up！ Podcast【最新回のみ】
- Published: 2026-10-23
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1366187377_7f90d10f1c43.html
- Audio: https://traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/67122501-9b17-4d77-84bd-a93d00dc791e/3c31cad9-230a-4a5f-b487-a9de001adcdd/a39b2937-b02f-4d14-a913-b4eb017dda33/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=47a5ec59-4c22-496d-b71d-b2a4001ebd5d
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

The October 23 broadcast examined the economic and national-security fallout from a critical vulnerability in PHP—the programming language powering a large share of the world's web services—as well as the Bank of Japan's potential effective acknowledgment that inflation has reached its 2% target at its October meeting. The programme also analysed the widening protests in Paris, now joined by organised far-left activists, and reviewed the economic record of the Takaichi administration at the one-year mark.

## What this episode answers

### How is the PHP vulnerability damaging the economy and cyber security?

AI-related stocks fell sharply in what was dubbed the 'PHP Shock,' with agentic AI automatically discovering and exploiting vulnerabilities at scale, causing near-daily intrusions and data breaches; the government's active cyber defence posture, reinforced in October, cannot keep pace, and there are fears the disruption could cascade into failures in critical infrastructure such as power and telecommunications.

### What decision is the Bank of Japan expected to make at its October monetary policy meeting, and what is the key focus?

The policy rate is expected to be held at 1.25%, but the meeting may signal that inflation has effectively reached 2%, which would force debate over restructuring the policy accord between the government and the BOJ established since the Abe administration, making Governor Ueda's post-meeting press conference remarks the primary market focus.

### What is the problem with Kanagawa Prefectural Police's unauthorised collection of driver's-licence face photos?

It was revealed that expired licences—which internal rules required to be shredded—had instead been passed to the security division for roughly 30 years, retaining face photos and other personal data in likely violation of the Act on the Protection of Personal Information; the National Police Agency has launched a nationwide survey of other prefectural police forces.

### Why have the Paris protests spread so widely, and how do they relate to next year's presidential election?

What began as a high-school student protest against education policy in Saint-Denis in September was joined by the masked far-left group Black Bloc, spreading destruction and looting across wide areas including the Champs-Élysées; the far-left party La France Insoumise is backing the students as left-wing forces rally ahead of next year's presidential election, in which Marine Le Pen currently leads polls.

### What are the achievements and remaining challenges of the Takaichi administration's economic policy after one year in office?

The administration's main achievement is a new industrial policy centred on economic security, including a ¥370 trillion investment plan across 17 sectors by 2040, with real wages staying positive since the start of the year and stock prices rising; Nagahama identified the shortcoming as market communication around 'responsible active fiscal policy' having fallen behind.

## Article

## The PHP Shock — Stock Plunge and Cyber Security Crisis

The lead story across all major morning papers was a critical vulnerability in PHP, the widely used programming language underpinning a vast share of the world's web services. The Asahi Shimbun ran "Domestic and overseas sites suspended," the Yomiuri Shimbun reported "Multiple ministries and companies rush to patch vulnerability," the Sankei Shimbun covered "Corporate and government service shutdowns," and the Tokyo Shimbun noted "Service suspensions mounting."

Nagahama Toshihiro (永濱利廣), chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, dubbed the episode the "PHP Shock," noting that the Nikkei Average had fallen sharply the previous day—led by AI-related stocks—while the yen strengthened. Jimbo Ken (神保謙), professor at Keio University and a member of the Cabinet Cybersecurity Council's cybersecurity committee, warned that even though the Japanese government had just reinforced its active cyber defence posture in October, agentic AI is now automatically discovering and exploiting vulnerabilities at scale, with intrusions and data breaches occurring on a near-daily basis. The pace of patching cannot keep up, he said, and there are growing fears that network and server takeovers could cascade into failures in critical infrastructure such as power and telecommunications.

## Kanagawa Police and the Unauthorised Retention of Licence Photos

The Mainichi Shimbun reported that Kanagawa Prefectural Police had been passing face photos and other personal data from expired driver's licences—which should have been shredded under internal rules—to its security division rather than destroying them. The practice is believed to have continued for roughly 30 years in clear violation of the department's own regulations. Jimbo observed that "there are many cases across organisations where personal data that should have been discarded is still being retained," and called for a broad review of personal information management practices. The National Police Agency has since launched a nationwide survey of other prefectural police forces.

## The BOJ October Meeting — "Deflation Exit Declaration" in Focus

According to the Nikkei Shimbun, the Bank of Japan is expected to hold its policy rate at 1.25% at the October 29–30 Monetary Policy Meeting, having raised rates only in September and choosing to assess the impact.

Nagahama identified the meeting's biggest potential development: a formal acknowledgment that inflation has effectively reached 2%. Should that happen, renegotiation of the policy accord (akōdo) between the government and the BOJ—established since the Abe administration to pursue an exit from deflation—would become unavoidable. The Takaichi administration has yet to issue a clear government-level deflation-exit declaration, making Governor Ueda's post-meeting press conference the primary focus for markets.

On the composition of inflation, Nagahama noted that demand-pull and cost-push factors are intermingled, with food price rises accounting for roughly half of the overall inflation rate. "It is not as if everyone is simply buying more food," he said, emphasising that cost-side drivers predominate and suggesting the government will remain cautious about declaring an exit. He also noted that escalating tensions in Iran have pushed oil prices higher, and a declaration that had been in preparation within the government has been shelved for now.

## Paris Protests — Far-Left Surge and the Presidential Election Shadow

Mitsui Mina (三井美奈), the Sankei Shimbun's Paris bureau chief, reported from the scene. Protests that began in September when high school students in Saint-Denis, a Paris suburb, demonstrated against education policy have now spread across wide areas including the Champs-Élysées and the Place de la République, with attacks and looting at stores including Dior and at banks. Mitsui said the situation was "different from previous riots," noting that Black Bloc—a group of masked far-left activists—had joined in large numbers and was systematically targeting symbols of capitalism.

Behind the escalation is the far-left party La France Insoumise ("France Unbowed"), which made strong gains in suburban Paris—where immigrant communities are concentrated—in the spring local elections. Its members of parliament and mayors showed up at protest sites to back the students. With Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National holding the top position in polls ahead of next year's presidential election, left-wing forces are rallying with a sense of urgency. A further large protest was being planned for the Sunday before a Le Pen campaign rally, signalling that political tensions will intensify. On the economic front, French long-term interest rates have surged and concerns over a sovereign credit downgrade have surfaced. Nagahama noted that a downgrade would leave France rated below Japan, and that Japanese government bonds are already seeing some buying as a result.

## One Year of the Takaichi Administration — The ¥370 Trillion Plan and Unfinished Business

The Takaichi (高市) administration marked its first anniversary on Wednesday. Nagahama praised the rollout of a new industrial policy centred on economic security as the administration's greatest achievement, pointing to a plan to invest ¥370 trillion across 17 sectors by 2040. Cross-cutting reforms covering the labour market and start-up support have also been pursued; real wages have remained positive since the start of the year, and stock prices have risen partly on the tailwind of the generative AI boom. On the downside, Nagahama said market communication around "responsible active fiscal policy" had fallen behind. Jimbo characterised responding to the Trump administration's America-first policies as the core challenge for foreign and security policy, deferring a fuller discussion to the 7 a.m. segment.

## Takeaways

- A critical PHP vulnerability triggered sharp falls in AI-related stocks in what commentators called the 'PHP Shock,' while agentic AI attacks are outpacing Japan's newly strengthened active cyber defence framework and threatening to disrupt critical infrastructure.
- The Bank of Japan's October meeting may effectively declare that inflation has reached 2%, potentially forcing a renegotiation of the government-BOJ policy accord established under the Abe administration, with Governor Ueda's press conference the key market event.
- La France Insoumise's organised backing of high-school protesters has broadened the Paris unrest into coordinated far-left action ahead of a presidential election in which Le Pen leads polls, while the risk of a French sovereign credit downgrade is pushing investors toward Japanese government bonds.