# 2026年 9月24日（木）コメンテーター：宮家邦彦

- Show: 飯田浩司のOK! Cozy up！ Podcast【最新回のみ】
- Published: 2026-09-24
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/1366187377_448f40160070.html
- Audio: https://traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/67122501-9b17-4d77-84bd-a93d00dc791e/3c31cad9-230a-4a5f-b487-a9de001adcdd/902d43a4-cc86-4adb-b101-b4ce017aa1cc/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=47a5ec59-4c22-496d-b71d-b2a4001ebd5d
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

Typhoon 25 has left Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures reeling, with 10 confirmed dead and a levee breach at Chiba's Lake Inbanuma, as foreign affairs commentator Miyake Kunihiko unpacked the Japan-US summit, the ICC controversy at the UN, and the North Korea abduction issue. Meanwhile the US 10-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high of 5.13%, pushing the yen to the 158 level against the dollar and raising fears the Bank of Japan may intervene again.

## What this episode answers

### How much damage has Typhoon 25 caused in Chiba and Kanagawa, and what risks remain?

Ten people have died and four remain missing across Chiba and Kanagawa; Lake Inbanuma's embankment breached at two points along roughly 100 meters each, damaging homes and fields, about 17,000 households (mainly in Ichihara and Kimitsu) remain without power, some JR lines are suspended, and newly formed Typhoon 26 near the Philippines may approach Japan next week.

### Why did PM Takaichi avoid naming the Japanese head of the ICC in her UN speech, and was that the right call?

Miyake said the issue isn't really about whether the ICC's head is Japanese but a complex mix of factors, including strained US-Europe relations and criticism of ICC prosecutors' conduct; he judged Takaichi's decision not to name the official as correct, since naming him would only have invited the view that it was 'because he's Japanese.'

### What strategic significance did the Japan-US summit held just before the US-China summit carry?

Held just before the US-China summit on the 24th, the meeting let Takaichi and Trump align on close coordination over China-related challenges, including economic security, and touch on the abduction issue; Miyake said the timing was valuable since a president forgets unless reminded repeatedly, and the lack of detail simply reflects the need to avoid derailing the imminent US-China talks over issues like Taiwan.

### What's behind the yen's fall to the 158 level, and could the Bank of Japan intervene again?

Stronger-than-expected US business sentiment data reignited inflation fears, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.13% and widening the Japan-US rate gap, which drove the yen to 158; Kanda noted the rate has already exceeded the level at which the BOJ conducted a rate check on the 18th, and since real intervention has often followed within days in the past, he flagged heightened alert for Tokyo trading today and tomorrow.

### Could Trump meet Kim Jong Un again, and how might that affect the abduction issue?

Miyake said it isn't impossible, since Trump may seek a fresh meeting with Kim Jong Un ahead of November's midterms to change the narrative, which could set the abduction issue in motion in some way, though he cautioned North Korea has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons and is growing more confident in its military strength through cooperation with Russia.

## Article

## Typhoon 25's Damage — Inbanuma Levee Breach and Widespread Blackouts

Record rainfall from Typhoon 25 has proven deadly across Chiba and Kanagawa. In Chiba, a man in his 60s was found dead near a submerged car in Inzai, and a man in his 70s died in a landslide in Kamagaya. In Kanagawa, a 35-year-old woman died in a separate landslide. Across the two prefectures, the death toll has reached 10, with four people still missing and search operations ongoing.

In northern Chiba, Lake Inbanuma rose to a record water level and its embankment breached at two separate points, each roughly 100 meters wide, flooding nearby homes and farmland. Tokyo Electric Power Grid reports about 17,000 households remain without power, concentrated in Ichihara and Kimitsu. JR East has suspended operations indefinitely on sections of the Sobu, Uchibo, Narita, and Kururi lines. Adding to the concern, Typhoon 26 has formed over the ocean east of the Philippines and may approach the Japanese archipelago sometime next week.

## Yen at 158 to the Dollar — 19-Year High in US Long-Term Rates Stokes Intervention Fears

Gaitame.com senior forex analyst Kanda Takuya noted that on Wall Street on the 23rd local time, the Dow fell 350.10 points to 51,511.59 and the Nasdaq dropped 308.24 points to 26,936.04. At broadcast time, the dollar-yen rate was trading around 158.35.

September business sentiment indicators for US companies came in stronger than expected, with a sharp rise in the services price index reviving inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.13% at one point — a 19-year high — accelerating yen weakness on expectations of a widening Japan-US rate gap. Kanda said the rate has already exceeded the level at which the Bank of Japan conducted a rate check on the 18th, and that in the past, actual intervention has often followed within days of such a check, underscoring the need for vigilance in Tokyo trading today and tomorrow. He added that Japan has already spent roughly 27 trillion yen this year, and its foreign reserves are not unlimited.

## PM Takaichi's UN Speech and the ICC Issue — Newspaper Headlines Split Down the Middle

Prime Minister Takaichi delivered her first general debate speech at the UN General Assembly in New York on the 22nd local time since taking office, stating that "Japan has consistently supported international courts such as the ICJ, ICC, and ITLOS, and has produced judges for them," affirming her commitment to the rule of law.

Major newspapers split sharply in their coverage. Yomiuri, Sankei, and Nikkei led with the Japan-US summit, emphasizing coordination against China, advanced technology, and AI cooperation. Asahi, Mainichi, and Tokyo Shimbun instead foregrounded the ICC and the UN speech; Mainichi's headline read "Japan-US Rift Over ICC," highlighting President Trump's characterization of the ICC as an "anti-American and evil group" and his call for withdrawal.

Miyake said the real issue isn't whether the ICC's head is Japanese, but a web of complex factors — worsening US-Europe relations, criticism of moves by ICC prosecutors, and even talk of investigations targeting US military personnel and the CIA. "The rule of law only functions when backed by enforcement power," he said. "Push idealism too hard and it causes friction." On Takaichi's decision not to name the ICC head, he said naming him would have invited the perception that criticism was "just because he's Japanese," and that omitting the name reflected a more appropriately global perspective.

## Japan-US Summit — Coordination on the Eve of the US-China Summit

Takaichi met Trump at UN headquarters on the 22nd local time. Coming just before the US-China summit on the 24th, the two leaders exchanged views on China-related challenges, including economic security, and agreed to coordinate closely. The abduction issue is also said to have come up.

Miyake said he doesn't believe there's misalignment between Japan and the US at the cabinet level or below — the concern is the president himself, who forgets unless reminded repeatedly, making this timely meeting valuable. On why so little of the roughly 35-minute meeting has been disclosed, he explained that discussing matters like Taiwan just two days before the US-China summit would cause serious problems if leaked, so silence was natural, with a fuller account expected only after the US-China talks conclude.

## The Abduction Issue and North Korea — Concerns Over a Trump-Kim Rematch

The US State Department's Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Bailey met with Yokota Takuya — brother of Yokota Megumi and head of the abductees' family association — to discuss resolving the abduction issue. The State Department posted on X that it "stands with Japan until every abductee is reunited with their family."

While welcoming this reaffirmed US commitment, Miyake noted that the State Department has seen continued staff cuts and departures, giving an impression that it's "not the State Department of the past." He also voiced concern that, with November's midterms approaching, Trump might seek a fresh meeting with Kim Jong Un to change the political narrative. "Iran is losing ground as things stand, so [Trump] may look to shift focus to North Korea instead," he said. "In that case, the possibility that this issue moves in some way isn't zero." Still, he offered a sober outlook: "North Korea has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons. Even South Korea has begun talking about phased denuclearization, and North Korea is growing more confident in its military strength through cooperation with Russia."

## Takeaways

- Typhoon 25 has killed 10 people across Chiba and Kanagawa; Lake Inbanuma's embankment breached in two places, leaving about 17,000 households without power, while newly formed Typhoon 26 may approach next week.
- Miyake framed the ICC controversy not as a matter of the agency head being Japanese but as a complex clash involving US-Europe tensions and prosecutorial overreach, praising Takaichi's caution in not naming the official.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield's climb to a 19-year high of 5.13% pushed the yen to the 158 level; with the rate now above the Bank of Japan's rate-check threshold, markets are on alert for possible intervention in Tokyo trading today and tomorrow.