# Round Up World Now!（2026.10.9放送分）

- Show: 伊藤洋一のRound Up World Now！
- Published: 2026-10-09
- Canonical: https://podc.club/en/episode/120034448_8809648e9f4f.html
- Audio: https://podcasting.radionikkei.jp/podcasting/roundup/roundup-261009.mp3
- Source: Edited from a machine transcript of the first 30 minutes of the episode. Not an official summary.

Yoichi Ito (伊藤洋一) unpacks the paradox of S&P 500 and NASDAQ hitting all-time highs while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.33%—a 24-year peak—on the October 9 broadcast of Round Up World Now! (伊藤洋一のRound Up World Now！). The episode also covers Ray Dalio's warning of a debt crisis within two years, a surge in global personal-data breaches affecting more than 300 million people cumulatively, Xi Jinping's repeated refusals to meet Prime Minister Takaichi (高市), and what the radical slimming of TOPIX's constituent stocks reveals about the limits of stock indices themselves.

## What this episode answers

### Why is the current U.S. market producing rising stocks and rising rates simultaneously, and where is it headed?

Expectations for AI-industry growth are propelling NASDAQ and the S&P 500, but that same enormous capital demand is pushing rates higher—a structural contradiction. The Russell small-cap index is already down roughly 8% from its peak, and Ito views the late stages of the Trump administration after the midterm elections as a particularly dangerous period.

### How should companies and individuals respond to the surge in cyberattacks and personal-data breaches?

Companies should hire white-hat hackers to attack their own systems in advance and identify weaknesses, while also minimizing the personal data they collect; photos can now be faked by AI and no longer function as identity verification. For individuals, the basic defense is never clicking a link in an email.

### How will Japan-China relations evolve as Xi Jinping continues to refuse a summit with Prime Minister Takaichi?

Xi Jinping rejected even Trump's mediation, citing "rising Japanese militarism," and China proposed a meeting with Premier Li Qiang as an alternative, which Japan refused. Ito says it would not be a problem if no summit materializes at APEC, noting that economic and trade exchanges continue.

### How should we evaluate the decision to cut TOPIX constituents sharply from 1,636 to 986 companies?

The intent to concentrate money in growth companies is understandable, but Ito points to a deeper problem: the Nikkei Average has exceeded 70,000 yen while Toyota shares have barely moved from around 3,000 yen, meaning the divergence between indices and individual stocks is already severe and multiple, more diverse indices are needed.

### Is Ray Dalio's debt-crisis warning well-founded?

Ito rates it as "not without basis," noting that sharp moves in long-term bond yields have historically preceded market instability, and that the current situation—compounded by fiscal deterioration in France and other countries—is consistent with Dalio's assessment.

## Article

## This Week's Markets: The Strange Coexistence of High Stocks and High Rates

This week the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed at record highs. At the same time, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% and the 10-year reached 5.33%—levels not seen in 24 years. Ito's baseline view is that high stock prices and high interest rates cannot normally coexist: rising rates make bonds relatively more attractive, and mortgage rates approaching 7% squeeze corporate earnings.

And yet stocks keep climbing, driven by expectations for the AI industry. If AI-agent capabilities—handling everything from travel booking to shopping—become widespread, the addressable market could expand explosively. The catch is that AI companies are piling up massive capital expenditure while profits lag; OpenAI's September results came in below expectations. That capital demand is itself pushing rates higher, an ironic feedback loop.

One signal not to overlook: the Russell small-cap index has fallen roughly 8% from its peak. Small-caps are directly exposed to long-term rates, which demonstrates that the "stock rally" in NASDAQ and the S&P is essentially a phenomenon confined to large-cap AI-related names. Prominent investor Ray Dalio has warned that rising rates will squeeze markets and the economy and that a debt crisis will arrive within two years. Ito takes this "not without basis," identifying the post-midterm stretch of the Trump administration as a particularly dangerous window. He also remarked that while stocks can fall from 100 to 70 or 80, they rarely break below 50—and that the time to invest with margin to spare may be approaching.

## Surge in Data Breaches: Hire White-Hat Hackers

Over roughly one month, the cumulative leakage of personal data totaling at least 300 million records worldwide was disclosed, with Japan alone accounting for a cumulative 57 million records. AI involvement is suspected. In response, Japan's Financial Services Agency has instructed financial institutions to shift identity verification at account opening from photographing a driver's license to reading the IC chip of My Number cards.

Ito's prescription is aggressive use of white-hat hackers: have them attack your own systems with the same techniques as real attackers to expose vulnerabilities before criminals do. He stressed the urgency with a blunt warning—"If you're not paying attention, everything will be taken"—and said minimizing weaknesses is essential. He also noted that companies should not collect more personal data than necessary, and that photographs can now be easily forged by AI and therefore no longer function as a reliable means of identity verification.

On the individual level, he urged vigilance against phishing emails. Ito himself received a message purportedly from Apple claiming to refund an overcharge on a subscription; when he checked the sender address, it was suspicious. "Never click any link in an email" is, he said, the single most effective defense.

## Japan-China Relations: Xi's Refusal and the APEC Question

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported that President Trump, at last month's U.S.-China summit, urged Xi Jinping to engage in dialogue with Prime Minister Takaichi. Xi refused, warning of "the risk of rising Japanese militarism" and arguing that Japan-U.S. matters should be kept separate from the U.S.-China relationship. Japan has sought a bilateral summit on the sidelines of November's APEC, and Li Qiang was proposed as an alternative interlocutor—an offer Japan has reportedly also declined.

Ito observed that Xi Jinping's personal hostility toward Prime Minister Takaichi is unambiguous, but that economic and trade-level exchanges between the two countries continue. He expressed the view that even if no summit materializes at APEC, it would not be a serious problem.

## The Limits of Stock Indices: What TOPIX's Overhaul Is Really Asking

Japan Exchange Group announced that at the end of this month it will cut TOPIX's constituent companies from the current 1,636 to 986—a reduction of roughly 40%. The aim is to weight market capitalization and trading volume more heavily so that money flows more easily toward growth companies.

Ito raises a more fundamental issue. Even though the Nikkei Average has exceeded 70,000 yen, Toyota shares have barely moved from around 3,000 yen. In the past, a rising Nikkei would carry Toyota and Mitsubishi Corporation with it; today, indices and individual stocks are diverging sharply. Economic differentiation and the rise of AI companies mean more and more stocks fall outside what any single index can capture.

He also criticized the fact that Japanese media reports only the Dow and NASDAQ, even though the Dow covers just 30 stocks while the S&P 500—far more widely used as a benchmark for investment trusts—is the more relevant gauge. "The time has come to change the very perspective of what we use as a benchmark," he concluded.

## Takeaways

- The U.S. 10-year yield has hit a 24-year high of 5.33%, and Ito judges Ray Dalio's warning of a debt crisis within two years to be well-founded.
- Cumulative global personal-data breaches have surpassed 300 million records; companies should counter this with white-hat-hacker pre-testing and minimal data collection, while individuals should never click email links.
- TOPIX is being cut from 1,636 to 986 constituents, but the divergence between indices and individual stocks is already severe, and the era demands a fundamental rethinking of which indices we use and how we read them.